According to a report, there is an 85% chance that the year will end as the second hottest.
This year is increasingly likely to be the second or third hottest calendar year on the planet since modern temperature data collection began in 1880, according to data released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This reflects the growing influence of man-made long-term global warming and is especially noteworthy as there was the absence of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean this year. Such events are typically associated with warmer years as they increase global ocean temperatures and add large amounts of heat to the atmosphere throughout the Pacific Ocean, the largest in the world.
According to a new report released on Monday, there is an 85 percent chance that the year will end as the second hottest in the NOAA dataset, with the possibility of falling to number 3. Overall, though, It is virtually certain (greater than a 99% chance) that 2019 will end up being one of the five hottest years in the world.
NOAA found that the average global land and ocean surface temperature in October was 1.76 degrees Celsius (0.98 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average, just 0.11 degrees below the October record in October. 2015
Notably, the 10 hottest octobers have occurred since 2003 and the first five warmest months have occurred since 2015.
October 2019 was the 43rd consecutive October to be warmer than the 20th century average and the 418th consecutive month to be warmer than the average. This means that anyone under 38 did not live a year colder than the global average.
So far this year, global land and ocean temperatures have reached 1.69 degrees (0.94 Celsius) above the 20th century average, just 0.16 a degree cooler than the hottest year record so far. , established in 2016, according to NOAA.
Other agencies that monitor global temperatures may rate 2019 slightly differently from NOAA, although their overall data are probably similar. NASA, for example, interpolates temperatures in the Arctic with little data, assuming that temperatures in the region are similar to its nearest observation point. NOAA, on the other hand, leaves parts of the Arctic out of its data.
Given that the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world, this means that NOAA data may be slightly underestimating global temperatures, although not much.
In an illustration of the differences that may occur between monitoring agencies, the European Union Climate Change Service called October the hottest month on Earth, slightly higher than October 2016. NASA and NOAA, on the other hand On the other hand, they ranked October 2nd on their lists.
Copernicus uses computer modeling data to monitor the planet's climate in near real time, compared to surface weather stations on which NASA and NOAA depend, which may be prone to precise location biases and other problems. However, both agencies work to adjust their records to remove these issues.
In the end, what matters is the long-term trend from many years to decades, and this shows a clear and clear increase that scientists have shown can only be explained by the increase in the amount of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. carbon, the atmosphere.
Human activities, namely the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil as energy, are the main contributors of greenhouse gases.
According to NOAA, there were record warm October temperatures in parts of the North and Western Pacific Ocean, northeastern Canada, and scattered throughout parts of the South Atlantic Ocean, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and South America.
The only record cold region in the month was in the western United States, where much of the Rocky Mountains were cold in the month. Interestingly, despite the absence of a declared El Niño in the tropical Pacific, global average sea surface temperatures were second hottest of the month, less than a tenth of a degree behind the record year of 2016, when there was an intense event. El Niño.
Oceans are absorbing the vast majority of the extra heat pumped into the climate system due to the buildup of greenhouse gases, with the heat content measured below the surface reaching record levels.
(Except for the title, this story was not edited by the NDTV team and is published from a syndicated feed.)
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