Sunday , February 28 2021

Silence and Gold From

© Reuters. – World markets continue to grow, at 20:00 Moscow time, 500 added 0.9%, reaching the level of October 26 last year, or almost recovering the losses of the last long recession. Boeing (NYSE 🙂 shares rose 5.2% on serious news: sales and profits to 2108 exceeded analysts' forecasts, the company also said that in 2019 plans to provide 900 commercial aircraft against 806 in 2019. Apple shares (NASDAQ 🙂 rose 4.3% after reporting a sharp rise in service sales, and its CEO, Tim Cook, said trade tensions between the US and China are dwindling.

However, where the head of Apple took such information is not entirely clear: the latest news on the American-Chinese issue was the introduction in the United States of official charges against Huawei, which could hardly contribute to "reducing tensions."

The market's growth is partly due to continued expectations of softening the rhetoric following the Fed meeting that began today. Economic news is not very good: according to ADP, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in the US increased by 213,000 in December, against the forecast of 180.9 thousand, another economy would be satisfied with this, but for the US this means a risk of further reducing unemployment. and as a consequence – the growing pressure on the labor market. At the same time, real estate sales are falling, the incomplete sales index in December fell 2.2% with expected growth of 0.8%, and has been falling for the third consecutive month. Many experts point out that the Fed is at a standstill: the continued tightening of monetary policy will seriously undermine the market and may not be beneficial to the economy as a whole. At the same time, the refusal to raise rates will seem to acknowledge problems in the economy and a concession to the pressure of American leadership, that is, it may threaten the image of an independent regulator – and that is worse than not increasing the rate at the time wrong However, there would be no happiness, but misfortune helped: because of the government's "shatdaun," many economic reports are coming out with a delay, and the Fed leadership has a formal reason to be silent.

Oil rose in price due to news that US crude stocks last week rose just 0.9 million barrels, with a forecast growth of 3.1 million barrels. The fact that this is still a growth does not bother anyone. True, the fact that gasoline reserves in the country decreased by 2.24 million barrels, with a growth forecast of 2.8 million, is the first decline in the last nine weeks, is really encouraging.

Another growth factor is the continued development of the Venezuelan crisis. Today, the authorities arrested the accounts of President Juan Guaydo, who proclaimed himself president, and barred him from going abroad – which was an obvious answer to receiving the right to dispose of Venezuelan government and central bank assets in the accounts of US banks. At 08:40 Moscow time, barrel futures rose 1.8% to $ 62.3.

It seems that this situation is extremely positive for the Russian economy. Only there, in addition to private funds (to the extent that private funds can be considered, for example, Rosneft funds (MCX :)), about $ 17 billion in state-owned debt, mostly arms, are stuck. And although experts often explain that "these weapons were actually discarded and the actual figure was to be divided by 20," but it is still unpleasant. On the eve of Russia's deputy finance minister, Sergey Storchak admitted that there may be difficulties in getting Venezuelan debt. And today, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak after him has admitted that Russian companies may have problems.

And today, Bloomberg, citing two sources, reported that a Russian Boeing was located at Caracas airport, in which Venezuelan Central Bank officials intend to export 20 tonnes of gold, about $ 840 million, or about a fifth of gold reserves of the country. If this message is true, and the current Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro loses the power struggle, then it is not surprising that Russian and Russian companies may have trouble dealing with the country's new leadership. It should be noted that an attempt to evacuate the gold reserve is a rather strong indication of Maduro's readiness for such a result. Russian officials denied involvement in the aircraft's appearance. Apparently, for someone else in Russia, the Venezuelan turned out to be more expensive than the Russian debts – if, again, this news is true.

Meanwhile, the Russian market, like the weed, continues to grow in everything that happens. The MosBirzh index calculated in rubles updated the historical maximum – 2513.77 points, and increased to the end of the day by 0.54%. The index due to the strengthening of the ruble rose more strongly, at 0.64%. So when the ruble begins to weaken again, the MosBirzy index will still have a large margin to establish new records.

In fact, the ruble stubbornly looks below the 66 mark. Today, at 19 hours, Moscow time, the dollar fell 13 kopecks. up to 65.92 rubles. In addition to all of the above, in favor of the ruble – dollar weakness, rising oil prices and other things, the seasonal factor continues to operate. "The seasonality remains, in the first quarter the market is dormant, imports are falling and export revenues, whose peak falls by the end of the year, continue to flow – that is, the currencies are more than the market is able to digest . In April-May, it will end. If nothing happens along the oil lines and sanctions, then February can probably be calm, this trend will continue, "says Oleg Solntsev, a leading expert at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting.

Against the backdrop of continued interest in the ruble, the Ministry of Finance has put in full OFZ worth 25 billion rubles. – however, reduced the volume of supply, obviously taking into account that the previous attempt to allocate 35 billion rubles at one time. was not very successful. "We put on the market, good demand, mainly local investors buy, there is a great demand, amid a strong ruble, an expected pause in the Fed's interest rates and the preservation of the interest of global investors in developing countries. The activity of non-residents is now smaller, as they are more afraid of sanctions, "says BCS senior analyst Sergei Suverov. "This can last for several weeks, and it is difficult to make plans later, since Russia's activity in the Venezuelan conflict can accelerate the development of the issue with sanctions."

(The text was prepared by Daniel Zhelobanov)

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