US stocks face key test, corporate earnings report will peak next week |钜 亨 网 – US Stocks


The US earnings season will reach a new peak next week, investors will also pay attention to recently released economic data, if US stocks can keep the current strong trend, these numbers will play a key role.

Including Amazon (AMZN-US), Boeing (BA-US), Microsoft (MSFT-US) and ExxonMobil (XOM-US) among the S & P 500 index, 155 companies Focus on the earnings report next week, with a total market value of more than $ 9 trillion.

Market expects decline in profits

According to Refinitiv data, 77 companies of the S & P 500 have recorded profits so far, 77.9% of which are higher than expected. In comparison, the proportion of companies that exceeded expectations in 1994 was 65%, compared with 76% in the last four quarters.

At the same time, the market is not optimistic about overall profitability, and profit is expected to fall 1.7 percent, the first negative value in three years, and some analysts believe profit will fall 4 percent or more.

Ken Polcari, chief of Butcher Joseph Asset Management, believes that the data released by the company so far are not so good, and if profits are still missing, the market will run out and begin to weaken, which will be a major week affecting prospects from the market.

The rapid decline in the market in earnings growth expectations in the second quarter has raised concerns about a recession. Second-quarter earnings are expected to grow 2.1%, below the 6.5% forecast at the beginning of the year and 9.2% as of October 1.

Michael Wilson, a US-based Morgan Stanley strategist, pointed out in a recent report to clients that while first quarter corporate profits may be better than "substantially reduced standards," this will not be the lowest this year. Wilson said the long-term P & E constituent S & P 500 index is 16.8 times, which is close to the high point of the valuation interval. If growth does not recover as expected by the market, the positive side will not be too big.

Economic data are also the focus

At the same time, investors are also concerned about the data of global economic growth, the current market outlook for first quarter growth suddenly began to look good, economists predict a median of 2.4%, far higher than 1 % expected at the beginning of this quarter. The global economy has also become positive, with less concern about the recent economic slowdown.

Cresset Wealth Advisors chief information officer Jack Ablin said investors had abandoned the idea of ​​a global economic slowdown. Economic data released by China is very good and has strengthened investor confidence.

In addition, US-China trade talks are also important next week as talks are still underway and investors are awaiting news of when Trump and Xi Jinping may meet.

Dan Suzuki, portfolio strategist at Richard Bernstein Advisors, points out that while the data appears to be improving, he still believes that the fundamentals of profitability and the economy are deteriorating. Recent data suggest that growth has not collapsed but is declining, and this situation may continue.


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