Wednesday , April 14 2021

Forecast for Slovenia: the worst is yet to come, the peak of the epidemic will be in mid-November



The effects of recent measures to contain the spread of the new coronavirus are already visible, especially those involving schools and those that have restricted the transition between municipalities.

The epidemic is spreading more slowly, said the head of the reactor technology department at the Jožef Stefan Institute. Leon Cizelj. The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak around Friday.

At that time, there should be about 960 of them, and then the number should start to drop. According to him, a 10% deviation up or down must be taken into account.

The peak in the number of patients in intensive care units, on the assumption that the measures will be taken, is expected to arrive around November 14, when it will reach around 245. From then on, it will be less and less.

    |  Author: JSI

ICE

Cizelj explains that a 10% deviation upwards or downwards must be taken into account. The peak in the number of patients in intensive care units, on the assumption that the measures will be taken, is expected to arrive around the 14th of November, when there will be around 245. From then on, it will be less and less. At that time, the reproductive number should also start to drop below 0.95.

Currently, according to him, more than 90 thousand people are infected, which means every 22 inhabitants. Currently, the proportion of contagious people is around 4.5% of the population. “This means that the probability of finding an infected person is very high,” he warned.

Due to the new testing method, in which not all people with symptoms are tested more, according to his explanation, they obtain information about those infected with a delay of three or four days. “This delay means that the infected person has not been tested, but appears at the hospital in three or four days due to the symptoms”, He explained.

According to him, several prohibitions seek to compel people to adhere to the measures and avoid contact with other people. However, they will not be successful if we do not fulfill them all, he said. It is difficult to assess which measures are really effective because they have taken effect in groups. “It helps to avoid contact and everything else is just support for that”, he summed it up.

Assuming that measures starting on October 20 will take over only partially, and measures starting on October 26 will fully and successfully contain the spread of the epidemic (reproduction number below 0.9), JSI predicts the following maximum numbers on the dates indicated:

  • 964 hospitalized on November 5, then slow decline
  • 245 in intensive care on November 14th, then a slow decline

In the forecast for hospitals, it was assumed that the measures and their implementation started from 20.10. they only partially accept that the measures of 26.10. effective enough and will be able to decrease R to 0.9, at which point the epidemic will have followed the current dynamics with R = 1.4 (an estimate based on the overall picture and the number of hospitalized patients).




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