Sunday , March 7 2021

MARKET POINT – Prudential approach in Europe, macro indicators in the agenda



                * Expected European indices almost unchanged at opening
* US-China trade negotiations ended on a positive note
But the Chinese Caixin PMI is worse than expected
* SMI for the euro area and US employment report on the menu

by Blandine Henault
PARIS, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Major European stock markets are expected
open without much change on Friday, caution is needed
trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing on trade and
indicators in the euro area and China.
According to the first indications available, the Paris CAC 40
could remain unchanged at the opening, the Dax in Frankfurt would
0.18% and the FTSE in London would take 0.05%.
At the end of two days of trade negotiations in Washington between
US officials and a Chinese delegation led by the deputy prime minister
Minister Liu He, Donald Trump expressed optimism. President
However, the US emphasized that no definitive agreement should be concluded
before its meeting, in the near future, with its Chinese counterpart Xi
Jinping.
These discussions come as the Chinese economy continues to
show signs of weakness: according to the calculated industrial PMI
Caixin / Markit launched on Friday, manufacturing activity in China has experienced in
January its biggest contraction in almost three years.
In the euro area, GDP growth was only 0.2% in the fourth
quarter compared with the previous quarter, with Italy, the third largest economy
of the region, fell into technical recession.
Germany is also experiencing a downturn, which could be more pronounced
and more than initially estimated, warned Thursday Jens Weidmann, the president
of the Bundesbank.
In this context, investors will pay attention to the publication in
morning of the final PMI indices for the month of January in the euro zone. but
the main appointment of the day will be the publication, at 13:30 GMT, of the
employment statistics for the United States in January, the United States
economists asking about a possible "shutdown" impact.

SECURITIES TO BE FOLLOWED:
The session will be animated again by several publications of results
in Europe and in the United States, among others, Deutsche Bank
and ThyssenKrupp, as well as those of Chevron, Exxon
Mobil and Merck & Co.

A WALL STREET
The S & P-500 of the New York Stock Exchange closed on Thursday its best
monthly performance since October 2015, thanks in particular to the good results
welcome to Facebook (+ 10.82%), which took advantage of Nasdaq and allowed
to prolong the optimism born of the accommodative discourse the previous day by the
Federal Reserve.
The Dow Jones, however, finished very slightly in red (-0.06%),
plummeted with the DowDuPont dip (-9.23%),
Quarterly business disappointed.
The S & P-500 advanced 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite advanced
1.37%.
During the month of January, the S & P-500 gained 7.87%, the strongest
monthly increase since October 2015 (+ 8.30%) and its best month of
January since 1987.

In asia
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended at 0.07%, the related optimism
Sino-US trade negotiations were swept away by the announcement of a
contraction of manufacturing activity in China.
Throughout the week, the Nikkei shows a symbolic progression
0.07%. It rose 3.8% in January.
In China, stock markets remain targeted before their long week
unemployed for the New Year. The CSI 300 index of large caps
Chinese advance of 1.18%.

RATE
Treasury 10 years back weakened by tone
Wednesday night by the Fed, which has been notably withdrawn from its
monetary policy statement any new rate increase
this year.
It is below 2.6289%, below more than ten basis points
its level before the announcements of the US central bank, and at the lowest level
for almost a month.
In Europe, the 10-year German Bund yield, a benchmark for
region, fell to less than 0.15%, penalized by disappointing statistics
in the eurozone and Jens Weidmann's warning about Germany's growth.


EXCHANGE
The slow economic environment in the euro zone weighs on the single currency, which
is trading at around $ 1.1430 after the peak at 1.1515 the day before.
This allows the "dollar index", which measures the evolution of the face of the dollar
for a basket of reference currencies, to pick up some colors after having
reached a minimum of two weeks the previous day.
The Australian dollar, which is very sensitive to the health status of the
China fell sharply (-0.45%) after the last Chinese PMI indicator.


OIL
Gross prices evolve on a stable note, divided between weakness
China's industrial PMI, likely signaling a slowdown
demand and the reduction of supply by OPEC and its allies
as part of its production management contract.
The North Sea Brent barrel is less than $ 61 and
US light crude is trading at around $ 53.70.


MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA OF FEBRUARY 1:

COUNTRIES GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
FRA 08:50 Manufacturing PMI Index January (F) 51.2 51.2
DE 08h55 PMI Production Index January (def.) 49.9 49.9
EZ 09:00 PMI Manufacturing Index January (def.) 50.5 50.5
P 09h30 Manufacturing PMI Index January (latest) 53.5 54.2
EZ 10:00 Inflation January (Flash) + 1.4% + 1.1%
USA 13h30 Creation of jobs January +165,000 +312,000
Unemployment rate in January 3.9% 3.9%
Salary of January + 0.3% + 0.4%
15:00 Construction expenses in November + 0.2% -0.1%
ISM manufacturing index January 54.2 54.1
Michigan Index January (F) 90.8 90.7

MARKET SITUATION
(Some data may show a slight change)


SCHOLARSHIPS
ASIAN
Latest Indices Var. % YTD
points
Nikkei-225 20788.39 +14.90 + 0.07% + 3.87%

Topix 1564.63 -2.86 -0.18% + 4.72%

Hong Kong 27851.46 -91.01 -0.33% + 7.76%

Taiwan 9932.26 +0.67 + 0.01% -7.27%

Seoul 2203.46 -1.39 -0.06% + 7.96%

Singapore 3187.80 -2.37 -0.07% + 3.88%

Shanghai 2611.84 +27.27 + 1.06% + 4.73%

Sydney 5862.80 -1.90 -0.03% + 3.83%

The fence in Tokyo:


WALL
STREET
Previous closing
:
Latest Indices Var. % YTD
points
Dow Jones 24999.67 -15.19 -0.06% + 7.17%

S & P-500 2704.10 +23.05 + 0.86% + 7.87%

Nasdaq 7281.74 +98.66 + 1.37% + 9.74%

Nasdaq 100 6906.84 +98.93 + 1.45% + 9.11%


Meeting detail on the wall
Street:
"The Day Ahead" - Update on the next
sitting on wall street

MARKETS
EUROPEAN
Futures in CAC 40 and in
EuroStoxx50

Values ​​to follow in Paris and
in Europe:
The previous session
:
Indices Closing Var. Var. % YTD
points
Eurofirst 1411.14 + 3.19 + 0.23% + 5.99%
300

Eurostoxx 3159.43 -2.31 -0.07% + 5.26%
50

CAC 40 4992.72 +17.96 + 0.36% + 5.54%

Dax 30 11173.10 -8.56 -0.08% + 5.82%

FTSE 6968.85 +27.22 + 0.39% + 3.58%

SMI 8969.27 + 3.56 + 0.04% + 6.41%

EXCHANGE
Watch Var. % YTD
Euro / Dlr 1,1438 1.1444 -0.05% -0.27%

Dlr / Yen 108.87 108.87 + 0.00% -1.26%

Euro / Yen 124.53 124.62 -0.07% -1.34%

Dlr / CHF 0.9950 0.9940 + 0.10% + 1.39%

Euro / CHF 1.138.3 1.1378 + 0.04% + 1.15%

Stg / Dlr 1.3104 1.3100 + 0.03% + 2.72%

95.6290 95.5780 + 0.05% -0.57%


RATE
Last Var. Spread / Bund
(PTS)

Bund 10 years 0,1460 -0,0100

Bund 2 years -0.5600 +0.0050

Oats 10 years old 0.5540 -0.0020 +40.80

Treasury 10 years 2,6289 -0,0060

Treasury 2 years 2,4615 +0,0000



PETROLEUM
(in progress Var Var Var% YTD
dollars)
Gross 53.78 53.79 -0.01 -0.02% + 17.40%
I
Brent 60.92 60.84 +0.08 + 0.13% + 12.50%



(Edited by Marc Angrand)
  
 
 

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