AMLO Government cuts forecast for 2019 and "mega-hit" for 2020



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The government of President Andres Manuel López Obrador cut the growth forecast for 2019 from 1.5 percent Р2.5 percent to 1.1 percent Р2.1 percent, according to the General Policy Pre-Criterion Economy 2020.

By 2020, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated to be between 1.4% and 2.4%, an adjustment from 2.1% to 3.1%, which means a reduction of seven tenths in previous estimates.

"These ranges differ from those of the Criteria
General Policies of 2019, as a result of the low level of growth observed
in the Mexican economy during the last quarter of 2018, which could
continue in the first quarter of 2019, "the Treasury said in a statement.

Based on the above, they predict real growth
Annual GDP of 1.6% for 2019 and 1.9% for 2020.

For the current year, they forecast an average exchange rate of 19.50 pesos per dollar and 20 pesos for 2020.

According
with the one projected by the Bank of Mexico in its quarterly report
October-December 2018, for the fourth quarter of the year it is expected that the
the annual inflation is of 3.4% and for 2020 of 3.0%. By 2024, it is estimated that inflation coincides with the Bank of Mexico's specific target of 3%.

The barrel of oil is forecast at $ 57 for 2019 and $ 55 for 2020. As of April 1, the Mexican mix was at $ 62.50 a barrel.

An interest rate is estimated in Treasury Certificates of 7.8 average, nominal 7.6 at the end of the period and 4.9 reais accumulated.

"The 2020 pre-criteria are presented under a global economic outlook
which shows clear signs of deceleration. The Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its January 2019 update of the
Perspectives of the World Economy, revised its projections of
growth of the global economy in 2019 from 3.7 to 3.5% real and 3.7% for
3.6 percent real by 2020, "the agency said.

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