Friday , October 22 2021

Trump-Xi is the center of attention with the change of the central banks


LONDON (Reuters) – Central bankers pass the spotlight on presidents and prime ministers this week as leaders of the Group of 20 are gathering for a summit in Japan.

The highlight of these talks will be the face-to-face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The fact that they were meeting was enough to boost action last week.

There is now pressure for both sides to ensure at least that their tariff battle does not worsen.

Any hint that they are prepared to resume negotiations toward an agreement would be good news for a global economy affected by uncertainty. A truce may also prompt markets to rethink how aggressive the Federal Reserve and central banks still have to be after they have approached new stimulus measures last week.

"The Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit in Japan has the potential to dramatically reshape the prospects for trade tensions," said Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Eliza Winger of Bloomberg Economics. "A difficult outcome would force the Fed to act." early."

Here is our weekly summary of other major economic events:

USA and Canada

After going through one of the most complicated meetings of Fed officials in recent history, President Jerome Powell will speak at a Council on Foreign Relations event in Washington. He will do this as investors look for clues as to whether and how soon he will hand over the interest cuts he went to last week.

If Trump continues his attacks on the Fed, it will also draw attention after Bloomberg reports that the president believes he can get Powell out of the presidency if he wants to. Other major economic reports include the release of durable goods data on Wednesday and the University of Michigan survey on Friday.

In Canada, on Friday, the publication of the first snapshot of gross domestic product in the second quarter. On the same day, the Bank of Canada announces its research on business prospects, which will help shape its outlook for rates.


Central banks in New Zealand and Thailand will meet to set monetary policy on Wednesday, although no change in the two cases is expected in Bloomberg surveys, according to median estimates so far. As Trump and Xi meet, China will release the current account data on Friday for the first quarter.

China's industrial profit data, released on Thursday, is expected to show another decline in May.

Europe, the Middle East and Africa

After Mario Draghi has pushed his European Central Bank one step closer to restarting stimuli, economic figures can provide clues about how concerned policymakers should be. German business confidence on Monday and confidence in the euro zone on Thursday will signal the mood of spending and investment.

The end of the week on Friday is the all-important June inflation data, which Bloomberg Economics expects to show the consumer price index rising 1.2%.

Bank of England President Mark Carney will have a chance to explain his vision when facing the UK Parliamentary Committee on Wednesday. Hungary and the Czech Republic should keep interest rates unchanged.

Turkish capacity and confidence data this week will provide insight into the second-quarter growth pace, which is expected to be worse than the first, when the economy emerged from a contraction. Foreign investors began buying the country's assets again and capital flow data on Thursday will show if this trend continued.

Botswana is expected to maintain its benchmark rate at 5% on Thursday and until the end of the year, despite the risk of inflation falling below the target of 3% to 6%.

Latin America

Brazil's central bank will release more details on its June 19 decision to keep borrowing costs down 6.5 percent and condition future cuts on "concrete breakthroughs" in the country's reform agenda.

Mexico's central bank is likely to maintain its main interest rate in a decade high of 8.25% on Thursday, despite rising risk of recession, as inflation remains above target and the threat of US tariffs haunt policymakers.

In Argentina, the first signs of economic returns may come on Wednesday, when the statistics institute reports activity data for April. President Mauricio Macri desperately needs good news on the economy as he seeks re-election.- Bloomberg

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