It seems that the Arab region is on the threshold of a new phase of change in the next period. A change that differs from previous components that were hit by some and others resisted, but the second party may not be able to withstand political storms that can take many roots and take the path of most parties and forces that have not improved reading of developments. and dealt with them realistically, and did not observe the movement. Populist variables in many countries.
The problem with the new wave, if you prefer, is that it came from outside the system of calculations that the dominant authorities tried to deal with through mechanisms based on security brutality and tight control and increasing restrictions on freedoms, and this method is no longer viable. to tackle mass movements that grow in the streets and have tails within groups. The intention is to punish the entire ruling class, regardless of sectarian tendencies or political prejudices.
Far from the successes or failures of this road, in the end, it expresses winds that many Arab countries are not used to dealing with, which leads to actions that increase the crisis, because the flexibility that can be used in the great calamities and near touches street consciousness is unconvincing It has been emptied of its contents, with a high rate of loss of trust between rulers, the condemned, and the elite. It is a crisis that doubles the difficulty of a solution and opens it to unknown possibilities.
Some governments have lost many letters to intimidate mysterious destinations in countries such as Syria, Libya and Yemen, led by the uprising to a bad destination, following the success of the Sudan experiment, the stability of the Tunisian model and the sophistication of movements in Algeria.
Accompanying the scenes and commentary from Lebanon confirms that there is a structural crisis that seeks to get rid of a fragile and multicolored legacy, failed to cure or even mitigate accumulated crises over two decades, and Hezbollah alone controlled most of the rules of the game, from top to bottom, horizontally and vertically. Its ugly practices have led to political obstruction, allowing it to capture the keys to many decisions that have found a revival in chaos and unrest, because calm and stability are a heavy burden.
The demonstrations in Lebanon are not intended to punish Hizbullah specifically, but carry an explicit rejection of everything that goes on in public and behind the scenes about the state's mortgage process, its chiefs and vital institutions with the will of a party with known external extensions. People are tired of a game that has brought so much loss that it has urged supporters of certain sects and parties to turn away from their leaders and not to give in at all costs. The reservation that the demonstrations in Lebanon, for economic, social and non-political reasons, is a blatant fallacy, because the protest against imposing a tax on the use of "WhatsApp" may be the spark that triggered the events, but the developments and their interactions were soon politically linked to serious errors that paralyzed state articulations. And citizens.
Randomness or loss of leadership, which some fear may lead to adult confusion and ambiguity, can become organized after a short time and have arms and wings capable of overcoming any political obstacles in the organization. Perhaps from the experience of the forces of freedom and change, and before the gathering of professionals in Sudan, they emphasized that the desire, the will, and the determination of the tools needed for change, even if it becomes an innate populist.
Something close to what happened in Lebanon has been repeated in Iraq in recent weeks, and although the events have not produced a tangible procedural outcome in the field of change, they have not resulted in an accurate picture indicating the compass of an upcoming process, but in General issued a strong warning to all forces involved in the arena Political fate far from national constants and subjected the fate of the state to the will of sectarian parties and movements that maintain close relations and serious interests with Iran.
If there are positive intersections between Iraq and Lebanon, it is a question of foreclosing on the fate of the two countries with what Tehran wants or reject, and with all those in their orbit, acceptance, silence or weakness.
This connotation involves two important messages. First, there is a time when Arab Street can emerge from your dream, surrender, inactivity, and subjugation. Second, the revolution is not far from the streets of Iran. All its components must be detonated when the public has come to the conviction that it can set off pent-up anger in recent decades, because part of the factors behind the events in Iraq and Lebanon could push a segment of Iranians out of the country. Wilayat al-Faqih.
Those interested in radical change benefited from the deliberate distortion of some revolutions and uprisings in the Arab region, abducted by Islamic forces and monopolized their political fruits, or the military institutions for remarkable hegemony, which lost the idea of shifting to their own. noble landmarks and made popular circles as atonement because it became linked to vandalism, destruction and uncontrollability.
The new wave, which is behind a wide range of young dreamers, is determined to reach profound transformations that will free themselves from a legacy of the past and the negative affluents they have suffered from political life, and a lack of confidence in any party that participated in preparing the atmosphere for a dark reality that can become increasingly unhappy over time. Tensions and crises that the political, economic and security forces could not resolve.
The experiences of Tunisia, Sudan and Algeria reveal an overwhelming rejection of all those who tried to adhere to their traditional trenches, secure a place for them under the changing sun and punish the people, undermining the role of parties with vocal phenomena and the selection of figures outside the machine on which leaders are manufactured and mobilized, as in the case of Tunisia.
A civilian government was imposed with a clear popular will and great powers to prepare for the post-transition period, as in Sudan, and insist on refusing to reproduce the central role played by the military in the political arena, as in Algeria.
Sporadic masses have sprung up in Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan and Algeria, and there have been many security abuses and many victims have been killed, and their countries have not entered a hellish spiral of protracted civil strife, because the public has learned the means to prevent this with some experiments. and the reasons behind the prevalence of violence. He gave no chance to those who tried to drag him into the ring or wave him.
The Sudanese held two-month demonstrations and did not deviate from the goal of change. The Algerians continue to press every Friday through the streets and squares, maintaining the freshness of their protests and their constant demands. This is what the Lebanese, who preceded others in mass demonstrations years ago, and returned home peacefully: this time the situation may need more time and sacrifice because the confrontation is wide and complex.
Some governments have lost many letters to intimidate mysterious destinations in countries such as Syria, Libya and Yemen, led by the uprising to a bad destination, following the success of the Sudan experiment, the stability of the Tunisian model and the sophistication of movements in Algeria. that the new wave of change is politically rational, where I learned from the lessons of the first wave about nine years ago, how to reduce the margin of deviation from desired goals, leading to political reforms by force or voluntarily.