The increase in VAT in 2020 now seems inevitable, considering that it is written in black and white on the pages of Def. Salvini and Di May refute every day until a real battle with Tria. The Ministry of Economy is already circulating some simulations on the possible impact.
The first is to initiate so-called "safeguard clauses" from January 1, 2020, with a relative increase in the ordinary rate from 22 to 25.2% and an intermediate increase from 10 to 13%. According to consumer calculations, Italian families would pay between € 538 and € 900 more each year. But the coup, in some areas of the country, could even exceed 1,200 euros. On the other hand, the transaction would bring 23 billion euros to the Treasury.
Another bill in the table is to increase the tax by just one percentage point. In this case, the normal would go from 22 to 23% and the intermediate from 10 to 11%.
The third hypothesis is that of a selective increase in VAT, to be verified item by item. Moving, perhaps, some products or services that are in the middle range, in the common top. In this case, one can think of increases for some sectors, such as tourism services or certain foods.
In any case, the Confcommercio Studies Office reports that, if the safeguard clauses are not deactivated and the VAT increase is triggered, as of January 2020, this 382 euros plus taxes per head. If the increase envisaged by the safeguard clauses of the last budget law is triggered, the burden will be 889 euros per family".
According to Confcommercio estimates, there are several products that would suffer a price increase. To give some examples, if the tax rate rose from 10% to 13%, the price of products as yogurt, homogenized, cured meats, drugs, electricity and air flights. Although an increase in the VAT rate from 22% to 25% would affect products like coffee, cigarettes, clothes, shoes, smartphones and perfumes.
The increase in VAT also Master CGIA, who in a note expressed his strong opposition. Master craftsmen point out that in the worst case, if 23.1 billion euros are not recovered by the end of this year, the ordinary rate will increase from 22 to 25.2%, while the reduction of 10 will increase to 13%. Thus, by 2020, Italy may be the country with the highest common VAT rate in the euro area. A leap that, "continues the CGIA," would allow us to surpass all and place ourselves at the top of the list of those most abused by VAT. "
"If VAT increases," says the coordinator of the Office of Studies Paolo Zabeo – we would favor exports, but we would penalize domestic consumption. Paying the bill would be from families, but also artisans, small traders and self-employed workers who live almost exclusively from domestic demand. "