The asset class to bet? The plot. Here's why.
Why bet on shares according to Credit Suisse
The economic and financial policies of central banks will be of great help to the markets. In fact, despite the still high ratings, the preferences of the Swiss institution are geared towards Wall Street and the emerging ones.
In the first case, expectations point to a recovery of the economy at the expense of all the alarms that speak of a deceleration in the way. In the second, for emerging markets, central bank policies will always allow prices to strengthen.
Emerging countries: the real trump card
As you know, in fact, emerging countries often have debts denominated in dollars. A weak national currency may be supported by a relationship with a falling dollar. In other words, the costs of debt in dollars, with a Fed waiting for the increase in interest rates.
So optimism about global stocks. The reason? The arrival of an economic recovery favored by an accommodative policy of the central banks.
As already anticipated, in fact, there would be some warning signs that indicate the recovery, in the second half of the year, of economic activity.
A recovery already from the second half of the year?
Those that Golay Markovich calls "important signals indicating a recovery of economic activity in the second quarter." Specifically, this is the manufacturing index of purchasing managers, the famous SMEs.
In Italy, a nation that was defined as a possible global risk, they are even stabilizing (the latter in services recorded an incentive of 53.1 points).
To support the financial conditions also a Fed that did not hesitate to radically change gears. And moreover within three months.
The Fed's course change
The three initial increases that had been advanced in December by some analysts were soon reduced first to two and then to zero. US President Donald Trump's criticisms of the work of Fed Governor Jerome POwell are also accomplices. Also because the central bank's aggressive strategy has rather frightened the markets now accustomed to financial stimuli for more than 10 years.
However, for Credit Suisse, it can not be ruled out that the aforementioned support could also lead to a stock recovery. The only unknown factor: the volatility that has always been linked to the earnings season.