Italian debt falls again for the second month in a row against a drop in Treasury liquidity. But inflation is down three years and the spread remains close to three-month highs, even if it recedes from yesterday's crisis: a sign that the end of the year is coming and signs of political instability are keeping investors on track. . The Dbrs, confirming Italy's BBB (high) rating with a stable trend, notes that "political uncertainty remains a concern and weighs on the rating." According to the rating agency, "the current government is unlikely to fulfill its full term by 2023, but the election of the president of the republic in 2022 and the strength of the League in the polls may represent two major disincentives" to the ruling parties. , adds the agency, noting the progress made by Italian banks, despite a stagnant economy. "Very high public debt makes Italy vulnerable to shocks," the agency specifies, "positively" assessing the government's commitment to further consolidating accounts and reducing the tax burden, which, however modest, may be a first step for broader tax reform. Certifying the public debt decline to 2.439.2 billion euros in September is Bankitalia. It is 23.5 billion less than the previous month, when it had already fallen a few billion.
An amount due to the reduction in the Treasury balance, Treasury's net assets of 43.7 billion, and therefore an accounting effect more than linked to budget rotations: the requirement, again in September, was 22, 6 billion and revenues remained in line with September 2018 at € 28 billion (€ 305.2 billion in the first nine months of the year). But it is still a fact that puts an end to historical debt records – almost without interruption – from late 2018 to last July's historic high of 2.466 billion euros. A figure that, in the economic context of an almost stable growth Italy (0.1% in the third quarter) and the previous executive directed by the markets towards the anti-euro positions of the League, had helped to explode the spread of fire. Today, the spread travels to 160 and only to 156 points in the end, after hitting 168 yesterday: far less than the peaks of over 300 during the yellow-green government, but still at most seen during the government. ; Count bis & # 39; .
In the markets, there is no shortage of reasons: With the end of the year approaching, many investors have decided to secure profits from the execution of BTPs – fueled by the latest Draghi package and the new government. little more European than the last – in recent months. And a good excuse to leave BTP was offered by the signs of political instability linked to the regional elections or the ArcelorMittal divisions: early voting scares investors, given the uncertainties about Italy's European positioning that they reside in Liga, which everywhere receives the electoral victory force by the polls. Italy remains a great opportunity given the good returns on a worldwide scenario of below-zero rates. But it is also noteworthy especially given the high debt, bloodless growth and, not least, an inflation rate halted in October at just 0.2% a year. Too low, it's pointless to think about reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio by diluting it. with higher nominal growth.
All eyes therefore also on the ratings of the rating agencies. Confirmation of the rating by Dbrs, the least known of the major rating agencies, does not appear to change the mind of investors, who currently rely on the cautiously expansive maneuver of Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri. But the sluggish economy, very low inflation and global risks – from China to a tax hike – suggest that nothing is taken for granted in 2020. And the spreading trend, once again rising from October lows, It is a sign that Christine Lagarde's ECB cannot go much further than Draghi has ever done. From here, the ball goes to the governments. And Berlin, avoiding the recession, has already announced that it will not launch a budget stimulus that can act as a watershed.