after the bread, the vegetables are ready for the power


Although the average rate of economic growth of three percent is exceeded next year, it is certain that we are beyond the summit.

The fall in the rate of economic growth is characteristic of the whole economy of the European Union, which, according to London financial analysts, is already felt in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It is true that after the fourth quarter, when measured on an annual basis, the average growth rate of 4% was 4% in the third and 4% in the fourth. However, according to calculations by Capital Economics analyst Péter Szász, calculated from data from the European Commission, the slowdown in Hungary's growth rate in the region is the lowest. According to him, some sectors of the construction industry and industry are the main driving force. In London in 2019, we are also likely to experience a slowdown in the area after accelerating inflation and rising base rates.

Capital Economics found it important to note that the export of the entire region will be restored by the weaker euro area activity. Morgan Stanley, who was disappointed with Hungary recently, is not even better characterized than seeing a robust growth in us. While this year's forecast for GDP growth of 4.4 percent in the Hungarian economy, they are expecting 3.7 percent in the average of 2019. It is true that they previously accounted for 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively . The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development last week issued regional analyzes in Hungary this year at 4.3% in 2019, with growth of 3.3% in the economy, which represents an improvement of 0.5-0, 3% in the May forecast.

Domestic analysts are somewhat shaded by the favorable image of London. The growth of the Hungarian economy peaked in the second quarter – Péter Virovácz told Népsava's interest. The leading analyst at ING Bank is already forecasting a downturn. The construction industry saw its annual growth of 24.4% as excellent. At the same time, this is a very low base year.

It is likely that the construction industry has reached the upper limits of its performance. Deadlines have become more general. Companies attract each other. So while one of your problems is solved, the other slows down. For professionals, instead of stadiums, they may need to build an apartment, "said Péter Virovácz.

There must be real problems with the industry as well. In contrast to London's views, the industry is performing poorly. There are also temporary reasons: a member of the Volkswagen Group, Audi Audi in Győr has not yet been able to obtain favorable poll results for certain passenger cars, thereby maintaining production because they do not want to accumulate a larger stock. The analyst felt that even if the current problems are resolved, the slowdown in industry growth should be taken into account.

In addition to the uncertainties surrounding the international economy (Brexit, the trade war and the deceleration of EU economic growth), the labor market is becoming increasingly problematic for the Hungarian economy, which is increasingly hampering growth. Due to the shortage of seasonal workers, agricultural prices are rising: some of the strawberries and raspberries harvested by hand can not be collected, "said Péter Virovácz.

Without EU money, it would be slower

It is increasingly common for Hungarian economic growth not to be able to keep up with EU funds. The effect of this is Gábor Karsai, the GKI representative, on an additional percentage point. The expert also drew attention to the fact that the EU not only provides money for economic development but also supports the development of educational, health or cultural institutions, among others, which does not appear in GDP. By 2019, even more than this year, we can get more money from Brussels: we expect a moderate reduction only by 2020.


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