First entry: Friday, April 19, 2019, 8:48 PM
"We can not draw reliable conclusions as to whether the rising trend of international pork prices is passed on to consumer prices, but retail prices do not show a high degree of correlation." This marks the Ministry of Economy and Development, clarifying data on price formation in pork and responding to reports of future increases of 10-15% in products such as souvlaki.
In particular, the announcement of the ministry says the following:
Worldwide, international pork prices have increased significantly as a result of a virus decimating China's pig industry, according to data from the Center for Trade and Consumer Protection of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development, as highlighted by prices retail. does not show a high degree of correlation.
Meat processors around the world are selling more pork in China to cover deficiencies caused by the outbreak of African swine fever. The consequence is the tougher commissions in the US and Europe that push prices up. The trend is set to continue as the disease spreads rapidly across China, the world's largest producer and consumer.
The disease, which is already underway in China's meat industry, will have a significant impact, driven by food price pressure to the growing demand for other meats such as chicken and beef. Swine production in the country may fall 30% this year, according to a report by Rabobank International.
China has recently held the largest weekly pork market in the US and shares in JBS SA, the world's largest meat producer.
Not only is China struggling with the spread of the disease. In Europe, there are fears that the virus, detected in boars in Belgium last year, could infect domestic pigs in major exporters such as France and Germany. France is in the process of building a fence that stretches for tens of miles near the border in an effort to contain the disease.
(CME) rose 77.5% (from $ 53.9 / lb on 2/25/19 to $ 95.68 / lb on March 22, 2019), while on 4/18/19 the settlement price was $ 96.75 / lb, which is four years high since September 2014. It should be noted, however, that in the last year (4/20/18 – 4/18/19) the trend has not been steadily increasing market, on the contrary. The chart below shows CME living pig meat settlement figures for the past year, showing the lowest price on 2/25/2019 ($ 53.90 / lb).
As far as domestic consumption is concerned, the above fluctuations do not seem to affect the pig market. According to data from the Prices Observatory of the General Secretariat of Trade and Consumer Protection of the Ministry of Economy and Development, the import prices of pigs are very stable. The following chart shows average monthly pork retail prices for pork from January 2018 to April 2019. The minimum period was observed in November 2018 (4.29 Euro / kgr) and the highest in May 2018 (4, 48 Euro / kgr) with an average period of 4,40 EUR / kgr.
In the last month there was a slight increase in retail prices of 1-2%, which is registered in the index of pigs of the General Index of Consumer Prices, which is published monthly by ELSTAT.
One can not draw firm conclusions as to whether the rising trend in international prices of pigs is passed on to consumer prices, but retail prices do not show a high degree of correlation.
At the wholesale level in the last three days, there was an average increase of 6%, which corresponds to € 0.15 or € 0.19 if we include VAT. The next few days will show when and how much prices will rise for the consumer.