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Spain: The bet to form a government



Socialists of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez won Sunday in parliamentary elections but did not guarantee a parliamentary majority. Sanchez will now seek partners to form an alliance government.

What are the possible next steps?

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

Sanchez will address other parties in an attempt to find common ground to form a government. Negotiations can last for weeks, even months.

The new lower house will meet on May 21. Felipe Felipe will then have talks with party leaders to find a future prime minister who will have the support of parliament.

A new government must have an absolute majority in the first round of voting in parliament to take office. A second round requires only a simple majority.

If the prime minister's candidate does not do so, a two-month countdown will begin so that parliamentarians can choose a new prime minister before the automatic cancellation of parliament and new elections are scheduled for 54 days.

WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL EFFECT?

Most analysts believe the most likely outcome is the emergence of a coalition government with the Socialists and the We can left although they do not have the majority.

At the last count, the Socialists received 123 seats in Parliament and the We can 42.

That is, they have 11 seats to occupy the majority in the 350-seat parliament, which means they will need to work with smaller parties, most likely with Basque nationalists or Catalan separatists.

This image may be slightly different after the vote count has been completed in the first few weeks of May.

OTHER POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

If talks between Socialists and WE can fail, Sánchez will be able to contact center-right citizens, who emerged as third parties and received 57 seats in Parliament. The two parties will have a majority and many of the financial markets believe that this would be the best development.

So far neither side has supported this option. Citizen leader Alberta Rivera told his supporters that his party would lead the parliamentary opposition, while socialist supporters shouted at a Sunday pre-election meeting "With Rivera No."

How long will it take?

After talks between the parties, King Felipe is not committed to the time in which he will propose a candidate for prime minister.

In addition, regional and municipal elections are scheduled for May 26, the same day as the European elections, which could delay negotiations on forming a government. This means that a new government is unlikely to emerge before June or even in July.

Pedro Sanchez: We win the reaction and the deception

"We showed the world that we can defeat the reaction and disappointment," said the Spanish election winner Pedro Sanchez, thanking – as he said – "heartfelt" the 7.4 million voters who brought the Socialist Party first.

The Socialists won two million more votes than in 2016. "We achieved this: the PSOE won the elections, defeated the future and the past was defeated," said the Socialist leader now with 123 MPs – almost 40 more compared to 2016

Sanchez will form the new government of the country, but he needs to work with Pablo Iglesias, who has 42 seats, and the Catalan PNV, to secure the 176 seats that guarantee an absolute majority in the Chamber. In Ferat – the party headquarters where traffic was interrupted early in the morning by the thousands of socialist fans – the slogan that inspired the atmosphere was "No cooperation with the Riviera" as El Pais wrote, pointing out that fans The Socialist Party demanded that Sánchez did not agree to cooperate with Albert Rivera's (Citizens) center-right citizens. "We will move based on our values, the values ​​of the left," Sandceth said. "No son of a bitch! It's clear now, "added the PSOE secretary of the balcony, clarifying the situation.

"Sanchez has every reason to be satisfied," writes Catalan newspaper El Periodico, adding: "He has beaten away his great adversary – the Pamlo Cassado People's Party – but needs post-electoral agreements to form a government in which he actively or (and they do not want this scenario), he will remain in the Monclova Palace, but the progress of the agreement will be complicated, Pablo Iglesias and the United We are saving the situation, although with a result much worse than in 2015 or 2016 but powerful enough to work with the Socialists and ask them to join the government. "

Strategy of Sanchez

"Sanchez's strategy to instigate the fear of the right wing worked and the PSOE was able to recapture 1,980,000 voters who left it between 2015 and 2016. With 99.93% of the votes counted, about 7,474,000 Spanish voters showed that they trust Socialists," he writes. ABC, noting that an agreement with citizens is probably impossible. "The orange formation of the citizens, transformed into a third political force, reaches 57 seats and if they collaborated with Sanchez they would have a total of 180 deputies, four more than 176 of the absolute majority." However, the president of the Citizens, Albert River , again rejected last night any choice according to Sanchez, opting to remain in the opposition, "writes El Pais. "Without the formation of orange, Sanchez agrees to agree to the We can adding the ERC or JxC equation and PNV," he adds.

We Bleed

"The rise of the Socialists was only possible due to the bleeding suffered by the violent formation of PODEMOS. The transfer of voters between the two parties is still alive, although this time it has fallen from 2015 to 2016. Thus, we have managed 29 seats and lost the third party secretary general Pablo Iglesias promised to open a dialogue on renewing leadership if the party represented less than 15 percent of the vote, and was at 14.31 percent, but said it was "sufficient." Despite its withdrawal, the We can probably have the ability to define the terms on the agenda of the next socialist government, precisely the goal of its leader for these elections, "ABC writes.

The People's Party pays the marble

"The collapse of the Popular Party is the news in the opposite political bloc, the Right. It has lost 71 deputies and now has 66 seats of 137 in 2016. It is the worst effect in the history of the party and this shows an unknown future," estimates El Pais .

The People's Party sank with the choices of its new leader, Pablo Cassado, to turn right to stop the influence of the extreme right-wing Vox. The People's Party won only in Melilla, remained without representation in the Basque Country and fell to third place in important areas such as Andalusia, Madrid and Aragon. And that is less than a month away from the autonomous local and European elections, notes El Pais.

On the contrary, the "orange party" – the citizens – increased its power by 25 seats and now has 57 deputies – only 9 less than the People's Party. In the votes, the difference between Rivera and Kassado is about 200,000. Although citizens failed to outdo the People's Party, Kassad's wreck allows Rivera to claim opposition leadership.

The presence of the extreme right Vox

Without previous representation in the Chamber, the 24 seats of the far-right Vox are an important result, although its leader, Santiago Abascal, has cultivated much greater expectations, even in the form of the new government. With 2.6 million votes, the far right Vox becomes the fifth political force in the new House.

Nationalism is growing.

Vox's presence in the New House coincides with the rise of separatist parties in the Basque Country and Catalonia. Of the 46 favelas, 22 are now in the hands of the separatists. Of the 18 deputies from the Basque Country, the ten are now nationalists

In addition, five Catalan separatists in prison were elected in parliamentary elections as their parties gained benefits in those elections.

Former Catalan Vice President Oriol Tuzkera, who, along with Catalan President Carls Pudeton, urged the attempt to separate from the Spanish province in 2017, is one of those elected to the lower house.

Tuzkera was the head of the detachment of the Republican Left of Catalan (ERC).

Another elected president of the ANC (Jordi Sanchez National Assembly) Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Turul, the representative of the Catalan government at the time of an attempt to separate from Spain in October 2017.

Both were candidates for the party Together for Catalonia Pujcadon, who left the country to avoid arrest.

Yoepu Pur, who was also in the local government of Catalonia at the time, was elected to the lower house.

Raul Romeva, who was Catalonia's foreign minister during the secession attempt, was elected to the Senate.

Catalan separatist parties gained ground in the elections by securing 22 of the 350 seats in parliament and probably playing a role in regulating the negotiations to form a coalition government with the Socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez who emerged as winners but failed to reach the majority of seats.


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