European survey: LREM widens the gap


The presidential party list gained 1.5 points in a week, widening the gap with the National Rally in the daily Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris Match, CNews and Sud Radio.

With a margin of error of more than two points (more or less than the displayed score), the game between the Republic in the march and the National Rally remains tight. According to the results of our daily Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match, CNews and Sud Radio, the LREM-Modem list benefited, however, from a positive improvement over a week. Reaching Thursday, shortly before the first televised debate on the European election campaign, 23.5% of voter intentions (+0.5), the list led by Nathalie Loiseau gained 1.5 points since March 28. The National Gathering, credited with 21%, is stable. Since the launch of our investigation on March 7, the difference between the two favorite parties has already been greater than in this last wave: reached 3.5 points on March 11, against 2.5 on Thursday.

Third, Republicans registered a stable score with 13 percent of voting intentions. On the left, the already weak gap is narrowing again between insubordinate France (8%, -0.5) and Europe Ecology-The Greens (7.5%, =).

No yellow waistcoats list, the balance of power is not upset

Remarkably, the lists of yellow jackets find, at 3% (-0.5), the level of March 7. This weakening is significant, after a peak of 5.5% reached on March 25. The Génération list, led by Benoît Hamon, is best with 3.5% (+0.5). This decline is paradoxical in the eyes of Frédéric Dabi, Deputy Director General of Ifop. "The yellow jackets of the electorate seemed to be redeployed shortly after the violence of March 16, operating a dissociation between the bad guys and the demands of the movement." While demonstrations take place under police control and with far fewer overflowings, yellow vests are experiencing a backlash on the electoral plane.

In the absence of a stamped list of yellow jackets, a hypothesis tested on Thursday by Ifop, "there is no significant impact on the balance of power," says Frédéric Dabi. "It's a disintegrated logic," says Frédéric Dabi. Without the yellow vests, the RN gets an additional point, with 22% of the voting intentions and the insubordinate France reaches a score of half a point more, at 8.5%. Frédéric Dabi notes that the phenomenon also benefits the patriots Florian Philippot (2.5% without yellow jackets, 2% with), a list that draws him "6 to 8% of Marine Le Pen voters by 2017." Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and his Debout la France list are stable (5.5% with and without yellow jackets).

About error margins

Statistical theory measures the uncertainty to be attached to each search result. This uncertainty is expressed by a confidence interval located on both sides of the observed value and in which the true value has a certain probability of being. This uncertainty, commonly known as the "margin of error", varies with the size of the sample and the percentage observed. When the difference between two lists is less than this margin of error, the order of arrival of the two lists is therefore uncertain.

The methodology and the margin of error specific to each research are indicated in the detailed report, published daily and available above. Ifop states clearly that "the results of this research should be interpreted as a meaningful indication of the state of the current balance of power," but that they are by no means a "predictive element of results on voting day."

To see the complete methodology of the research, click here.

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