Rising oil prices in the first two years of the year
The second price adjustment in 2019, the latest oil price rose before the Spring Festival, the price of gasoline and diesel was increased by 350 yuan and 335 yuan per ton respectively.
After the end of 2018, the oil price "five consecutive drops" in 2019, the price of oil began to recover and rose moderately. After the first high of the New Year on January 28, China announced the latest increase in oil price before the Spring Festival According to information released by the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, as of January 24, 2019, domestic gasoline and diesel prices The same) raised 245 yuan, 230 yuan per ton. For every liter, 92 # gasoline is increased by 0.19 yuan, the 95 # gasoline is increased by 0.20 yuan and the diesel 0 # is increased by 0.20 yuan At this point, China's refined petroleum product reached "two consecutive increases".
It is reported that after the price of refined oil rose, the price of gasoline and diesel in China was increased by 350 yuan and 335 yuan per ton, respectively this year.
After the price of oil is increased, it will cost about 9.5 yuan to fill a box of oil.
Gasoline price network data show that on January 28, the price of 92 # gasoline per liter is about 6.5 yuan, the # 95 gasoline price is about 6.9 yuan / liter, and the price of 98 # gasoline is 7 yuan / liter – 8 yuan / Among increases, the price of diesel # 0 is about 6.2 yuan / liter.
Xu Wenwen, an analyst at Longzhong Information Oil Products, said: "After this round of price adjustment, the price of diesel engine in most areas of the country is about 6.5 yuan / liter, and the retail price limit is at 6.6-6.8 yuan / liter. At the peak of travel, the price adjustment will increase the cost of oil for some private car owners. "
Xu Wenwen said that with the ordinary private car with a 50L fuel tank capacity, after the price adjustment, owners will spend 9.5 yuan extra to fill a box of oil.According to the urban consumption of 7L- 8L, the average price of driving is one thousand. The cost of kilometers increases by about 13-15 yuan. For a large-scale logistic transport vehicle with a capacity of 50 tons, the average fuel cost is about 80 yuan per kilometer.
In a few days, China is about to usher in the Spring Festival holiday of 2019. According to traditional customs, it is essential to visit relatives and friends during the Spring Festival.All localities will usher in a travel peak.Therefore, the two oil prices before the Spring Festival are lifted, making The cost of travel to car owners during the Spring Festival has increased.
Li, owner of the private car in Hebei, told the Beijing News reporter: "Chinese New Year will visit several relatives, and these relatives are not very close, so the price of oil is rising.I will spend more with the Chinese New Year ". Usually, I usually add 200 yuan to fuel, about half a box. I'm going to add 400 yuan of oil for the New Year, and use it for the New Year. "
By 2019, China's refined oil prices rose twice in a row, which is not related to rising international oil prices. Wind data shows that this year (January 1 to January 28), Brent crude rose 12.04%, the current price is about 60.6 dollars / barrel, has been similar to the price at the end of November of last year, that 2018 The low of $ 50.22 / barrel for the year of December 26 was about $ 10 / barrel.
Similarly, the crude oil price of the NYSE rose 15.24% this year. The current price is about $ 52.8 / barrel, which is over $ 10 / barrel compared to the low of $ 42.36 / barrel on December 24 of last year.
OPEC has cut production, etc., so that supply and demand for crude oil tend to balance
The main reason for the rise in international crude oil prices is that the situation of oversupply in the oil market is declining. In the first three quarters of 2018, crude oil prices rose all the way, and future Brent oil prices once surpassed the $ 80 / barrel mark. However, after entering the fourth quarter, international oil prices showed a downward trend. Wind data show that in the fourth quarter of 2018, future Brent crude oil prices fell 34.72%, once dropped to a low of 50.22 US dollars / barrel.
The founder's medium-term futures believe that the decline in demand is the cause of the long-term decline in crude oil and other commodities. In the context of slowing global economic growth, demand for bulk commodities should not be bullish, and demand is difficult to find support.
It is reported that on October 9, 2018, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) launched the "World Economic Outlook" in October 2018. For the first time since 2016, prospects for global growth are expected to be reduced. The overall growth rate for 2018-2019 is expected to be 3.7%. The two-year forecast is 0.2 percentage points lower than expected in April last year.
However, crude oil production at the end of the offer remained at a high level. Pacific Securities price issued a view in the fourth quarter: "The oil production of the three major oil producers in the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia is at a record , and the market is worried about oversupply and weakening demand. "
However, this situation has gradually changed with OPEC member states and the main non-OPEC member states, and the production reduction agreement reached at the end of last year has gradually changed. According to media reports, on December 7, 2018, the two parties agreed to reduce the daily production of crude oil by 1.2 million barrels from January 2019. The production cut will last 6 months and , in April 2019, the parties will reassess the status of the international oil price and will take the next decision, currently the production reduction contract has entered into practical phase. Zhonghui Futures believes that "a reduction in production expectations has restored investor sentiment about the market price of crude oil along with the warming of the market risk appetite that has led to a recovery in oil prices."
In fact, at the end of last year, OPEC has already taken steps to reduce production and insured prices, according to Reuters data released on January 3 of this year, showing that Opec's daily average oil price in December 2018 was 32.68 million barrels. It was 460,000 barrels less than November, the largest monthly decline since January 2017.
In addition, according to Xinhua News Agency, Venezuelan President Maduro announced on January 23 that Venezuela officially broke diplomatic relations with the United States. The incident also raised concerns about whether the international market will reduce the supply of the subsequent crude oil market.
The company's refining capacity in the United States, the Caribbean and Europe accounts for more than half of Venezuela's refining capacity. company whose refining capacity in the United States 28%, if the latest sanctions involve the company's refining operations in the United States, may reduce the supply of refined US oil, in addition, the internal situation in Venezuela may cause more damage to the facilities and oil production if a large-scale military conflict is fired. This will also lead to a further decline in crude oil production and exports in Venezuela, reducing supply on the international market.
However, there is also some bad news that has reduced the price of oil during the year, such as the increase in US gasoline inventories. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil production for the week of January 18 was 11.9 million barrels per day, which was stable compared to the previous month. In terms of inventory, US EIA crude stocks rose 7.97 million barrels to 4.4503 billion barrels, while US gasoline stocks rose again. On January 18, US gasoline inventories were 259.6 million barrels, an increase of 4.05 million barrels. The absolute amount of inventory hit a new record in five years.
How to go in the future oil price?
Under the complicated international situation, what is the trend of monitoring crude oil prices? The views of the parties are different.
Pessimists believe the crude oil price center will decline this year from last year. According to the opinion of the Anliang Futures Research Institute, 2019 is a year in which oil is at stake for many long-short factors. The price center has been over-regulated due to supply, but the short-term trend still depends on the impact of emergencies. Overall, oil prices fluctuated in the first half of 2019, and will recover in the second half of the year, showing a pattern of first suppression and then promotion. "In general, the price of oil in 2019 was first suppressed and then increased.The price center was lower than in 2018 and the market price in the second half was better than in the first half.The annual interval was 40- 80 USD / barrel and the price center of 50-70.
Shen Wan Hongyuan Research believes that oil prices are still on the rise. Brent crude oil prices are expected to be 60-80 dollars / barrel in 2019 and the reasonable price is $ 70 / barrel. " The deterioration of relations between the United States and Venezuela in the later period will lead to increased risk of restricted supply, and the closure of the port of Libya due to bad weather, the international price of oil increased.
It is reported that the next round of adjustment window of China's refined oil price will be open at 24 hours on February 14, 2019. Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that with the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will begin to increase, with an interval of about 50 yuan / ton. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, this year China will usher in a total of 23 windows of refined oil price adjustment. At present, if oil prices will continue to rise and stabilize in the "7 yuan was" or until achieve the "8 yuan was", but also need to combine the price of international crude oil. The tendency is to judge.
Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun