"Catrillança is not the Knight of Piñera, because it does not damage his base of support"


Stocks: Raphael Serra P.

Cristóbal Bellolio, political analyst and professor of the University Adolfo Ibáñez, affirms that it was a question of time until Luis Mayol left the Intendency of Araucanía. "He was a dead man walking"He says, while asking to put in broader perspective the case of the homicide of Camilo Catrillanca, the strongest political crisis that hit the government and also the opposition.

– Is Minister Chadwick exposed after Mayol's resignation?

– My impression is that the government was using as a human shield so that the blood did not reach the interior. Today, this fuse has already jumped, so the Minister of the Interior is more or less exposed. The government believes that the exit of Mayol will satisfy the thirst for political responsibilities of the opposition. It remains to be seen, but the government has in its favor, in this contingency, the argument that, in the face of similar situations in the past, no one had acted as swiftly and decisively as they did. And if you look, it is not a lie.

"What can you expect from the interpellation?"

– I think the president is right when he says that the interpellation is a constitutional instance for the ministers of state to give explanations. We can dramatize the interpellation. That being said, I I do not think there is much room for the opposition to try anything else. Frente Amplio (FA) led some accusations and they were unsuccessful. The point is, are you going to try to take Chadwick away without enough water in the pool? Because someone would think that after the interpellation comes the constitutional charge. DC had already pointed to Mayol, implying "until now we have arrived".

– Do you think the opposition will try to take advantage of the Catrilean case, or will you seek a lesser profile given your history of dealing with the conflict?

"The FA is at this crossroads because, on the one hand, they rightly believe that the New Majority has a glass ceiling. It is not only the government of Piñera that persecuted the Mapuche people, it can be said following its line of argumentation. In the case of the New Majority, they have the problem of the recent past; has a face to take on responsibilities that they have not taken on at the moment.

"We'll hear this response from the government.

"Yes, and I think La Moneda is right. Now the government had two voices, as Mirko Macari would say: hawks and pigeons. I have the impression that the pigeons hit the right key, because if you look both Alfredo Moreno and Hernán Larraín were willing to acknowledge that they bought the wrong version and that you have to go to the end.

– If the hawks are Chadwick and Ubilla, what remains for Moreno, who began to change the story with the Mapuche people?

– To change the story now we have to redouble the bet, because the original bet was the Araucanía Plan, which would have made the history go to this government as the most pro-Mapuche of all, being of the right. Today, of course, the theory of separate chords, which is a theory Moreno liked very much as a chancellor, failed. Moreno bought the theory of separate ropes in La Araucanía. This is, on the one hand, the carrot of the Araucanía Plan and, on the other hand, the garrote of the Command of the Jungle. Today this is unsustainable. Yet, I do not think the government is willing to give up the club. Too bad a government is right whose constituency believes the club is indispensable. Anyway, if you do not give up the club, you will have to give up your intention to rewrite the relationship with the Mapuche people.

– Can the Catrillança case be the "Caval" of Piñera's government?

– Obviously, The Catrillança case is the government's most difficult crisis, much more so than the Rojas case, but it is not necessarily the Cañera de Piñera case. What Caval did was undermine the confidence of President Bachelet's middle and lower ranks. Its capital ends up being destroyed with Caval. "You too, Michelle? We thought you were different." This was the psychological process, more or less, of Bachelet's electorate. I do not know how many people in Piñera's electorate, in this contingency, are betrayed by the government. In fact, I could say that there are antimapuche speeches on the right and I do not think I'm being risky when I comment on that. I do not see how the electorate of Piñera, because of Catrillança, look at him and say "you betrayed me, Sebastian." Instead. Many of them would rather stay with the club. I do not think it's Piñera's Rider, because that does not detract from his own base of support.


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