RBA monetary policy statement due at the bottom of the hour



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Statement by the RBAA Reserve Bank of Australia due at 0330GMT on Tuesday, April 2, 2019

No change in the exchange rate is practically a unanimous expectation.

The eyes will be on Governor Lowe's statement to a firmer dovish stance (or not)

Previous previews here:

Waiting now in the RBA: And later … budget: And this: Via Société Générale in today's RBA:
  • It is expected to keep rates on hold tomorrow at 1.50% but not to discount the possibility of a more dovish shot after the RBNZ last week.
  • Futures are assigning a 50 percent probability to the rate cut by July, which may seem extreme, as the unemployment rate is 4.9 percent, an eight-year low. Previously, the RBA saw a likelihood of rate hike or cut, but since the Fed meeting last month, AGB's 2y to 5y earnings have fallen below the exchange rate target. The 3m / 10y curve reversed after the US and thus marked the likelihood of a recession. Six of the last seven times when the inverted curve were followed by RBA rate cuts.
  • AUD / USD down 0.70 in March but can be cornered if the RBA signals a change.
I posted this after the recent fall in unemployment below 5%
Statement by the RBAA Reserve Bank of Australia due at 0330GMT on Tuesday, April 2, 2019

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