With the base interest rate, the Selic, falling, savings income should lose to inflation. This may be because savings income is 70% of Selic, plus the Referential Rate (TR), which is zero.
Selic is currently at 5% per year and the Central Bank has already signaled that the rate should fall in December to 4.5% per year and end 2020 at this level. As a result, savings income will rise from 3.5% to 3.15% per year. Inflation, calculated by the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), should close 2019 at 3.31% and 2020 at 3.60%, according to financial market estimates.
If one considers the monthly forecast, inflation is expected to reach 0.36% in November and 0.35% in December, while savings will yield 0.29% per month, with Selic at 5%, and 0.26% per month if the base rate drops to 4.5% per year.
Investors who have old savings and have not withdrawn funds receive higher returns. That's because all deposits made until May 3, 2012 yield 0.5% per month (or 6.17% per year) plus TR. As of May 4, 2012, the new savings calculation rule will be 70% of Selic plus TR, whenever the rate is below or equal to 8.5% per year. Above 8.5% per annum, the yield is 0.5% per month plus TR.
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The Executive Director of Economic Studies and Research of the National Association of Finance, Administration and Accounting Executives (Anefac), Miguel José Ribeiro de Oliveira, says that this new reality of saving yield is here to stay. “It's a reality because interest rates will be low. They will fall again now in December, possibly to 4.5% per year. This means that savings will yield 3.15% per year. And it is already becoming a problem because this yield must be lower than inflation, ”he said.
“Let's go here in Brazil for what happened in the United States and Europe. In these economies, interest rates were high. People invested in fixed income. There were guaranteed and high investments. But interest rates have been dropping and the situation has reversed – most Americans and Europeans currently invest in the stock market. We will have this scenario in Brazil – who wants higher profitability will have to take risk, ”he said.
Oliveira advises anyone who chooses to invest in stocks and has no knowledge of the financial market to seek equity funds. “There are two ways to apply to the bag. One is to apply directly to stocks of a company. This kind of choice should only be made by more knowledgeable people. For starters, the best alternative is to get into equity funds. Because deep down there is a manager who knows the best paper to buy and he will dilute the portfolio to minimize the risks. It will choose several types of companies, such as financial, banking, retail, energy, ”he said.
If you do not want to take risks or intend to make an emergency reserve, the recommendation is to review the management fees of fixed income funds. For Oliveira, with Selic shrinking, the tendency is for financial institutions to reduce management fees to attract more customers. Another option is to look at Treasury Direct securities such as Selic Treasury. Investors may also consider other investment options available in the market.
Investments in funds and in the Treasury Law are subject to income tax and administration fees, which must be analyzed by those who decide to invest.
Reflections on the economy
Oliveira points out that lower savings income can have consequences not only for the pockets of savers, but also for the economy of the country. "Since leaving money in savings won't even maintain purchasing power, it can make people stop saving and allocate money for consumption," he said.
Another factor is the reduction of resources for housing finance. Currently, 65% of savings resources go to housing financing.