See what you can handle soybean prices next week



Soy quotation
Soy quotation

After a rather bad week for prices in Brazil, the week should start with new pressure on the values. Mainly due to the slaughter of pigs in China due to swine flu. Follow below the facts that should merit the attention of the soybean market next week. The tips are from the analyst at Safras & Mercado, Luiz Fernando Gutierrez.

  • Chicago keeps the focus on the new chapters of the US-China trade war. Signs of demand for US soybeans and the climate over the US producer belt are also in focus. In addition, the market is beginning to look more closely at the problems with China's pig herd, which has been suffering heavy losses in the face of the advance of African swine fever.
  • The new round of talks between high-ranking representatives of the US and Chinese governments scheduled to take place between the last days of April and early May may bring important news after several days of "doldrums." It is possible that the date for the meeting of Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will be marked, and that at this meeting the expected trade agreement will be signed. Rumors indicate that this meeting will take place in May, taking advantage of an already scheduled visit of the American president to the Asian continent. While awaiting news, Chicago must remain pressed.
  • The market also expects new purchases of US soybeans from China to be announced, although there are no strong indications that this will occur. This fact, occurring, may bring some punctual short-term breathing. Not occurring, the market may lose a little more ground.
  • The climate in the US producer belt is still not favorable for maize sowing. The tendency is for the humidity to remain for a few more days in most of the states, disrupting the planting work. This may lead to a smaller transfer of soybean areas to corn, raising the yield potential of the new oilseed crop, further negatively affecting Chicago. However, if the climate scenario on the belt is not positive after soybean sowing, the movement may be reversed, bringing some breath to future contracts in the face of possible production losses.
  • The advance of the African swine fever in China begins to catch the attention of the market. The sacrifice of pigs grows day after day, and there are doubts about the size of it. Players should closely monitor the news coming from the Asian country. The fall in Chinese herds could have a major negative impact on Chinese demand for soybeans, directly impacting Chicago. Attention to this factor.

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