Saturday , October 23 2021

Who pays the bill for increased country risk: Macri or Cristina? – 12/22/2018


For the more experienced traders on the market, it was no surprise: in recent days, the strongest sellers of the national titles were the Argentines.

This trend comes later, for weeks, from the weakness of these papers was attributed to the sales of large foreign funds in the expectation that Cristina Kirchner I could win the election. That, in other words, it would be Mauricio Macri I could lose them.

The increase in the country's risk rate to 800 points (means that Argentina must pay 8 points more than US bonuses to raise funds) was crowned after the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate by a quarter of a point to stay in the range of 2.25 / 2.50% per year.

The increase in the US rate implies increasing "The ground" of the financial cost to the world, especially for emerging countries and, in this case, Argentina, whose country risk has risen sharply in recent weeks.

Originally, the country risk rising from 600 to 700 points responded, in the view of bankers, operators and investors, to a question of political expectation.

They read that the Government's electoral strategy, supported by the Jaime Durán Barba Chief political adviser to the president, it would be based on the confrontation with the former president, and on financial issues that translates into facing the fear that Cristina Kirchner generates in the financial world.

For finances, a triumph of the former president repudiate the IMF, would unilaterally reschedule, the return to capital controls and the deepening of its policy of fighting with companies that are not related to it.

The logic of the deepening of the political crack was followed by the increase in the "Cristina risk", which had as its cornerstone a message from the former president more friendly to some businessmen, but maintaining the position of the former minister Axel Kicilloff renegotiate a position of strength with the IMF. What will be the alternative financing?

Like a dog that bites its tail: Cristina's fear favors the rise of country risk that raises doubts about the government's chances of reactivate the economy although it has no way out of the markets to raise funds.

That a bond that expires after 2019 comes to offerBetween 12% and 14% per year in dollars is the most obvious economic indicator that is relatively inexpensive but also reflects uncertainty before the election year and occurs at a specific time.

There is an improvement in the official mood in the heat of the calm of the foreign exchange market in the last four weeks. In November, for example, the purchase of tickets by private individuals dropped significantly again (they were US $ 408 million, the lowest since 2015).

Currency stabilization was probably the best economic news of a year in which devaluation collapsed economic activity.

Both manufacturing and construction industries are registered falls of 40/50% in the main items.

O real wage would end with a 10% and the sale of food, with losses of about 5% in quantities.

Faced with this scenario, the Casa Rosada prepared a framework that projects growth, from now on, of 1% per month of the salary mass which will be added to 7.8% of pensions in December and a parity policy that is in deep discussion and has two strong players with opposing positions.

The Ministry of Production of Dante Sica He has already said that he expects wage increases are 23% but, of the Economy, those close to Nicolás Dujovne they let know that the minister I would be happy if inflation drops to 28-30% next year.

The IMF said last week it expected it to follow the policy of raising rates and moderating wage increases, but not everyone who plays in the elections thinks the same.

In the Province of Buenos Aires, for example, there is a need to loosen the salary hardness and move forward without much hesitation in the application of the "trigger clause" to upgrade state salaries, including teachers, to the result of inflation.

The idea that in 2019 we must put more money in people's pockets is clear in most of those emerging as key candidates of the ruling party; that's why climate change at Casa Rosada stands out.

Once again in Argentina, a certain calm of exchange unleashes the fantasies of the parties in power and, even more so this year, after a race that has put many of the political aspirations on the brink of the cliff.

The end of the year is quieter, but the strong increase in country risk increases the tension for Cristina Kirchner's possible candidacy and the economic costs for the management of Mauricio Macri. It also calls into question the electoral theory of confrontational confrontation.

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