But most will pay their debts, according to analysts polled.
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The additional injection of resources that will bring the $ 5,000 bonus for registered and private state employees is approximately 0.6% of GDP, although it is charged a bonus that in December the beneficiaries of Universal Child Aid will be charged (AUH ) – which had been agreed in September – would increase to 0.9%, according to some calculations.
Analysts polled by the Buenos Aires media have estimated that this extra will have a "marginal" impact that will not reverse the projected drop in consumption this year at around 2%, according to estimates by consultants revealing hypermarkets and supermarkets, stores self-service
Among private and public workers, almost 10 million people would receive the end-of-year bonus, or about $ 50 billion, which is "equivalent to about 0.6% of GDP," according to economist Guido Lorenzo.
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An IERAL report stated that "in the case of AUH beneficiaries, which reaches 3.8 million children and adolescents, in September an additional payment of US $ 2,700 was set, of which they have already received US $ 1,200 in that month. and it is still worth $ 1,500 in December, "and calculated that if this were calculated," the effect on the expanded wage bill would have a size of 0.9 percent of GDP, "about $ 60 billion.
Only 25 percent of the money will go to consumption and can help reactivate service items, such as restaurants, "said Lorenzo, who predicts" a good portion will be used to pay off debts because delays have increased. "
The bonus "does not move the needle on the consumption issue," and judged the goal to be more "political" because it "helped break down wage demands or reopen higher parities."
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, of Ecolatina, agreed that the title "will slightly moderate the drop in consumption and will serve with the half-year bonus to cancel credit card debt" while "it will delay the reopening of peers a little, and will help an end of year with greater social peace ".
For Juan Paolicchi of Eco Go, the link is a "palliative", but "it is very difficult for the title to compensate for the fall in consumption" and agreed that it will have another destination: "many people have taken UVA credits and are suffering the interest burden ". , the same with the payments of the credit cards ".
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At the Association of Argentine Factories of Electronics Terminals, the impact of the bonus has been relativized since it is charged in two installments. Sources at the entity commented that "the horizon we have is that reactivation will be very slow." In that sense, they stressed that now is the season to sell air conditioners. "We're waiting for it. Demand for air generally starts in mid-October, but this year has not started yet."
According to the latest data released by the Central Bank in October, "loans mainly to households, both credit card loans and personal loans continued to fall in real terms and adjusted for seasonality, down 3.3% and 4% ., 1% per month in each case ".
Guillermo Barbero of the First Capital Group said that "the generalized increase in interest rates has restricted the offer of new loans, in addition to putting demand requirements on hold."