The political mathematics that processes the planet Vidal esteem in 20% the chances of unfolding the election of Buenos Aires so that governors and mayors, as well as legislators and councilors, are elected on their own date, different from the presidentialist.
The governor is seduced by this option, Mauricio Macri does not rule out and Marcos Peña, chief of cabinet and strategist Cambiamita, the veto, although, they say in the government, is now shown less sharp than weeks ago.
To the point: without a political pact inter PRO, without the consent of Macri-e de Peña- the chances of separating the elections tend to zero. But if there is a will, Vidal must come up with complicated political and legislative engineering to unfold.
A monument in honor of former President Raúl Alfonsín as "father of modern democracy" opens in the Plaza Moreno de La Plata. (Mauricio Nievas) silver frames peña maria eugenia vidal monument inauguration of Raul Alfonsin at the Plaza Moreno ceremony with government officials statue of the former president of Argentina
In La Plata, the PRO leaders undertook a thorough study of electoral legislation and to detect alternatives to take the provincial election of the national of August 11 (PASO) and October 27 (general).
Minimum, according to "paper" who agreed Clarin and that circulates between officials and legislators, Vidal should retouch two rules. It is an intricate and complex labyrinth with many facets.
- The Electoral Law of Buenos Aires -5109- establishes in its article 116 that the elections must be held between 30 and 120 days before the end of the mandates. The period ends on December 10, which must be done between August 10 and November 10. Deploying, in vidalist tactics, makes sense if it advances several months, preferably before the closure of national lists that it operates in mid-June. For what? So that when these ballots are defined, the mayors of Buenos Aires have already voted and ordered their schemes and, in the logic PRO, disaggregate – in terms of campaign and funds – of the national elections. Vidal's ideal timetable would be for the vote to be held on June 9 or 16.
Article of the electoral law of Buenos Aires, 5109, which defines the term for the election of the province.
- But this is not enough: even modifying these deadlines, there is another "obstacle": the provincial primary law, 14086, requires that PASS Buenos Aires be done on the same day as the national PASS. It is the so-called "Néstor clause" that has its history: in 2009, the national law was approved and when the Buenos Aires law was discussed, the then Deputy Governor Alberto Balestrini released the federal date and, thus, the law of the Senate, but Kirchner intervened to "bind" both dates.
- Article 2 imposes the concurrence of STEP, although no law imposes the simultaneity of the general. This extravagance would force Vidal to rectify this law, but even so, as the standard says STEP must be summoned 4 months in advance, and between the primary and the general 60 days ago, the governor must set a date for the elections January or, at the latest, in February.
The Néstor clause: the article of the law of the primary Buenos Aires, 14,086, that "binds" the Buenos Aires PASO to the national,
- Then, we turn to another shortcut, much militated by Jorge Macri and other mayors of Cambiemos: to eliminate, "for the only time", as was done in Catamarca, PASO in the province. There the margins are enlarged: without primaries, the general can be summoned with 75 days in advance: to vote in June, Vidal has time until March. That is, they say in government, term political and electoral context where risks and benefits will be measured and estimated.
- But it does not end all. To put these changes in the laws, other disadvantages are generated: the ordinary period ends, and if Vidal wants to push these changes to extraordinary, he needs to get two-thirds of the legislators' votes to put into treatment – what is known "in tables" any initiative, even if only a simple majority is required for its approval.
Without primaries, the general can be called 75 days in advance: to vote in June, and to call Vidal has time until March. That is, they say in government, the political and electoral "deadline" in which the risks and benefits of separating the votes will be measured and estimated.
- In the Deputies, to reach two thirds of the votes, we can negotiate with the Renewal Front of Sérgio Massa and the "Peronismo ex K" of José Ottavis. It begins to play the political negotiation and there is a clue: Massa is promoter of the electoral roll of the municipalities and, say, next to him, would be willing to accompany the provincial in exchange for the inclusion of the unique system of paper ballots.
María Eugenia Vidal, Sergio Massa Martín Insaurralde Maria Eugenia Vidal Sergio Massa Martin Insaurralde Governor Buenos Aires Meeting Intendants
- If he wants to depend less on his partners, Vidal can expect to start the regular 2019 period, open the sessions on March 1, and rush treatment to a project that "suspends" STEP and also extends the terms on which you can vote for end of mandate – from 30 to 180 days, for example – changes that could be made with simple majorities. The risk is also political: to impose, in the midst of an election year, a legislative change aimed at improving their chances of victory.
- The whole design has another risk. Vidal's thesis, which weaves but saves Federico Salvai and which Emilio Monzó invoked at the time, is that an initial victory in the province would work as a positive injection for Macri's candidacy. But it can happen that she loses or has a very tight victory or, as speculated in some Platense offices, Cristina Kirchner appears as a candidate for the position of governor in the province where she best measures.