Thursday , August 5 2021

The dollar would remain close to the floor of the non-intervention zone



The last wholesale closure was $ 37.37, only 16 cents from the lower limit. Between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21 the exchange rate fluctuates by supply and demand

The Central Bank continues with a restrictive conduct of its monetary policy.

On Friday, the price of Wholesale dollar closed at $ 37.37 and fell eight cents on the day. In this way, the The exchange rate approached the floor of the lower intervention zone of the Central Bank. The limit on Friday was $ 37.21. Monday will be $ 37.28 – is updated daily to accrue 2% increase in the month.

Economists believe the dollar will continue on the ground in the non-intervention zone. The dollar price ranges from $ 48.19 to $ 37.21 – up to yesterday – according to supply and demand. Yes Go beyond one of the limits, automatically, the bank intervenes to "stabilize it".

Since the scheme began, the exchange rate never went down the middle of the corridor, but it always came down. In early November, it was eight cents from the ground, according to Clarín.

For analysts, the trend will continue in the coming days.

Bárbara Guerezta, an economist at Arriazu Macroanalysts, says that "we see a dollar closer to the floor than the ceiling".

Among the reasons, the economist states that "The amount of pesos in the economy is transactional [el dinero para que las familias y personas atiendan sus obligaciones], makes it difficult to think that it is an amount that can trigger a process of dollarization like what occurred in 2018, even when we see electoral uncertainty this year. "The economist also adds two other reasons that deflate the demand for dollars: the contractionary policies of the Central Bank and the Treasury.

Gabriel Caamaño, from the consulting firm Ledesma, agrees. "I see the dollar close to the ground, and if it does, it will only be transitory."

"We see this near the lower bound, but we do not break it," said Jorge Neyro, ACM.

Country risk fell 100 points from last week, and in this context, the retail dollar fell 11 cents yesterday.

The amount of money in the economy increases in December for seasonal reasons (holidays, Christmas bonuses). Hence in January, we expect a lower peso demand compared to the previous month. According to Caamaño, the BCRA would surpass this month's monetary target by about US $ 15 billion. This would give the bank protection to reduce the interest rate. Today the value of accounts and deposits is at minimum levels in relation to GDP, says Guerezta.

The central bank explained this week how it would operate if the wholesale dollar – the market in which banks and companies operate – break the word: would buy $ 50 million a day through bids, provided that the weight expansion does not exceed 2 percent of the monetary base target compromised under the IMF agreement. The rate would thus begin to fall.

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