The financial market is entering the final stretch of the year and, compared to greater liquidity in the market and increasing demand for coverage, the Dollar Continues to Continue High, within the range provided by the Central Bank.
The dollar price has risen on average US $ 1.01 (+ 2.6%) in banks of the microcentro, a 39.52 pesos. It's about the prices higher since last October 3rd.
I was also advancing 90 cents or 2.3% Monday at Banco Nación, when it is at $ 37.60 for the purchase and $ 39.40 for sale.
In the wholesale market, the exchange rate advanced 90 cents to 38.50 pesos for sale.
The US currency accumulates six days on the rise in the retail segment and five in the wholesaler, with a increase of 7.2 percent.
Why does the dollar go up? On the one hand, the agents of the foreign exchange market greater demand for coverage institutional investors, already with the purpose of closing the end-of-year balances.
On the other hand, the reaction of the exchange rate responds to the gradual but continuous rate reduction reference in pesos. The BCRA cut the income from liquidity accounts (LELIQ) since 73.5% to 61.4% in the last six weeks.
Last week, the president Gudo Sandleris allowed the weight release through a partial renewal of the maturities of the Letters LEBAC, for more than 120,000 million pesos.
A report of Ecolatina He predicts that "in early December, the LELIQ rate would drill the floor of 60% when inflation expectations would show the second consecutive monthly decline."
This cut would also respond to the seasonal adjustment in the December Monetary Base, with one expanding by around 7.5%"This would allow the central bank to inject pesos into the market to meet the biggest needs of the month," added Ecolatina.
In addition, there is the intention of the monetary authority to monitor an increase in the value of the currency while it remains within the Free floating band that goes up 3% per month.
This Monday the zone "without intervention" marks a "floor" of US $ 35,893 and a "ceiling" of US $ 46.45. Therefore, the dollar price is still closer to the planned floor than to the ceiling.
"The dollar, the market's central humor thermometer, keeps on walking along with the lowest exchange rate"He explained Nery Persichini, investment manager at GMA Capital. Ponderó also "the exchange rate has dropped 9% since the end of September.
In any case, Persichini warned that "the American currency could not have shown the recent healthy trend without the the presence of a contractive monetary policy. Pursuing a measurable but bold goal zero growth of the Monetary Base, the BCRA is regulating the amount of money in the economy, leaving the interest rate is the adjustment variable"
A report of Economy and Regions considered that "the interest rate will not fall neither strong nor fast" and that "there is high interest rate discount for several months"He added that it is possible that" later, the current downtrend will reverse and the rate will rise again. "