The dollar had its third consecutive fall and the retailer moved away from the $ 45 area he came to rub last Wednesday. The help of the international context was fundamental for the currency to give positions and the month to start positively the peso and, in general, the Argentinean assets. With the expectation of the entry of the agromodólar and the sales that will soon begin the Treasury, now some analysts believe that the exchange rate could return to the floor of the lower range.
The wholesale dollar, which is the one that defines when the Central may or may not intervene, lost more than 1.5% yesterday to end at $ 42.71. This level is still 8% above the floor of the exchange band, although in the middle of last week this gap has approached 11%.
Now the lowest range is at $ 39.40, but with the sliding at a rate of 1.75% a month, it would be above $ 40 at the beginning of May.
The research head of the Cohen Stock Exchange Society, Juan José Vázquezl detailedthe causes that could again lead the exchange rate to drill into the nonintervention zone, or at least to be very close. He was one of the strongest in assessing currency behavior. Others prefer to be more cautious because of the effects generated by pre-election "noise."
According to their calculations, during the second quarter, about $ 5.7 billion will enter the foreign exchange market, only between field sales and Treasury liquidations.
"The exchange rate should show less volatility, with a decreasing trend, returning to levels around the lower range during the quarter", said the expert. This analysis also includes an increase in dollarization of portfolios from June as elections approach and once they know who the candidates are.
But even in this scenario, which is most likely given the great uncertainty, the surplus of foreign currency would be around US $ 2.7 billion between April and June. And this mass of currencies would significantly reduce the exchange rate. At least according to these analyzes.
The weekend, Infobae published a report for the Treasury's number, Miguel Braun, where he also makes clear the position of the economic team: there are more than enough dollars to face this pre-election period, so we should not expect further currency shocks. In March, the dollar rose almost 11%, mainly due to the scarcity of the market offer. This situation should be reversed as of this month.
But on the first day of April other factors favored a decline in price. On the one hand, The Central Bank has confirmed that the benchmark rate will not fall by 62.5% over the course of the month (currently it is only slightly above 68%).
Then the president entity Guido Sandleris He made it clear that even when there is downward pressure on the exchange rate, yields in pesos will remain attractive. The idea would be not to repeat the mistakes of January, when the Central quickly lowered the rates from 59% to 44% before the fall of the exchange rate.
But also The recovery of the real and other emerging currencies against the dollar was fundamental. It was a very favorable day in general for risky assets and Argentine stocks and bonds were not on the sidelines. Within this table, the dollar was expected to be traded lower, something that happened in the morning and deepened at the last minute.