The index Merval of major stocks seems to have marked a low resistance at 700 points measured in dollars. By combining a negative external scenario, peaks in the exchange rate In the domestic sphere, the ByMA panel (Markets and Markets of Argentina) touched the 2018 lows on August 30, September 4 and December 26, in floor similar to the 700 points of January 20, 2016, with this devaluation subsequent to the elimination of exchange controls.
To trace this 700-point walk in dollars you have to go back to January and February 2014, when the wholesale dollar rose 20% in just three days (from 21 to 23 January) and the possibility of agreement with the holdouts.
In the last seven wheels the Merval recovered 18.6% in pesos, from the floor of 27,480 points on December 26 to the total of 32,580 on Monday. And earned 22% in dollars, from 712 to 870 points. During this period, the wholesale dollar fell from 38.60 to 37.41 pesos.
"Now there are many who agree that the fall of Merval 2018 has left the stocks in bid trays and very low prices and therefore attractive as well as ties with high chances of succulent returns, "he said. Jorge Fedio, technical analyst of Clave Bursátil.
A report of Investments He said that "the decline in country risk and the increase in local financial assets was partially the result of a greater appetite for risk from global investors following a more moderate message from the Federal Reserve regarding disarmament of the balance sheet." the increases in interest rates ".
The rebound of equity Argentina was also reflected in the ADR performance, certificates through which national taxpayers operate on Wall Street.
YPF fell to its lowest level in nearly six years on December 26, when the ADR traded at $ 12.01. Since then, recovered 20.8% to $ 14.52.
The country risk of JP Morgan, which measures the US bond rate spread with its emerging peers, drops eleven integers to Argentina, a 720 basis points, after posting levels close to 840 points in the last week of 2018.
O sovereign bonds at the Electronic Open Market (MAE) registered on Monday a slight average improvement of 0.1%, with which accumulate an increase of more than 3% in the first sessions of 2019, according to data from the Reuters.
A report of VatNet He said that "the local market showed a strong recovery compared to the excessive falls in recent months"while this progress"was accentuated by the higher risk alternatives, who came to be the most punished. "
Between the dollar bonds, those with Argentine legislation and expiration after 2020 continue with very low prices and returns about 12% per year in dollarslike him Bonar 2024, Discount 2033 and Bonar 2025. However, these sovereign bonds reached about 15% just two weeks ago.
"We highlight the recovery of the prices of the minimum securities, which from our vision they were "cloaked" in the last month and did not match the fundamentals. This separating from analysis what policy that is a variable that today affects, but it is an unknown that will not be solved in the short term ", contributed Investments in Personal Portfolio.