Nine reasons that have returned the euphoria to the Stock Exchange and overturned the risk of the dollar and the country


And the band played again. The dollar, which tumbled on Tuesday from the bottom floor of the flotation band, climbing nearly 30 cents, lost all the territory won and was a penny and a half of the minimum price of which the Central Bank has promised to intervene by buying a maximum of US $ 50 million per day.

The dollar, as it is known, fits every day at a daily rate of 2% a month. Where the price does not meet this requirement, the Guido Sandleris, should intervene in accordance with the agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Until now I did not have this commitment because the market reacted without the official presence.

In Argentine extremism, the dollar has disconcerting times. From being the center of life, it becomes despised. Today investors are dazzled by rising inventories and the level of interest rates. A quiet dollar is a huge deal for those who earn a fixed term in weights of 4.5% a month.

What happened? These are the factors behind the decline of the dollar and the better mood of local financial markets.

-The tranquility for the advancement of nThe United States and China.

-O weakening dollar before the other currencies for the smallest trade showdown.

The reduction of US Treasury bonds which help reduce Argentina's risk because it improves the parity of its debt securities.

– the constants Wall Street Walks in 2019 (Only one wheel has descended since the beginning of the year) that contagion to the stock markets of the world.

The Rise of Oil, an indicator that a good pace of growth is expected in the world. Brent increased 2.98% to 60.42 per barrel. Threat to reach $ 70.

The rise of the grain. Soybeans increased by almost 0.70 percent at $ 336. Maize and wheat are accompanied.

-The fact that the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States, put in the freezer the idea of ​​some rate hike in 2019, indicates that the cost of debt will not increase and that Argentina with a country risk lower than the current one can return to the international debt markets.

The resurrection of Brazil, the main customer of Argentina.

Improvement in the inquiries of the official candidates.

In this way, the dollar in banks and exchange offices ended with a drop of 13 cents to $ 38.50. The "blue" went the opposite way and went up 50 cents. With few deals closed at $ 39.75.

Instead the wholesale dollar which is what applies to companies and particularly to exporters and importers, stumbled and lost 23 cents. It is not ruled out that the currency will increase in the face of the Central Bank's low rates. If it does not react by market force, the Central Bank may intervene in the purchase of foreign currency. Do not forget that exporters are charged with a hold of $ 4 and this level of exchange is back.

In the bidding of Liquidity Letters (Leliq), the Central Bank placed US $ 155,303 million. As this number exceeds by almost US $ 25 billion the value, this amount is withdrawn from circulation and dries more square. The cut rate was 59%, 0.15 points less than the previous day. The average rate at which he placed these bonds, which are only for banks, was 58.78%, just 0.02 points less than on Tuesday.

The paradox is that, in any part of the world, when the market is dry, rates rise because the demand of those who borrow should be met. But in Argentina, where the banking system works nationalized because all fixed terms are taken by the Central Bank, the reverse situation occurs.

Reserves grew US $ 127 million to US $ 65,944 million because abroad the rise of the euro and other currencies, in addition to gold, yielded US $ 140 million and there was only one payment in a million for Brazil.

Country risk fell 1.65% to 714 basis points. A sizable level compared to the maximum of 830 points he played a few weeks ago.

It is that bonds like the 2024, which is reference market, rose 0.54% against a fall of 0.61% of the dollar. In addition, the US Treasury Bond, which is the benchmark for measuring country risk, yielded and its income, at the lowest price, rose to 2.72%.

On the stock exchange the euphoria continued after a slight pause on Tuesday. With business for US $ 1,147 million which nearly tripled what was operated two weeks ago, the Merval index rose 2.60%. Around noon, at the best time of the market, was 4.15% above.

The center of Puerto (+ 6.80%) was the highlight. The energy company's fees accompany the dollar.

On Wall Street, among the ADRs, stock ownership certificates, there was almost absolute supremacy of increases. Only Edenor fell (-0.25%). Loma Negra (+ 5.22%) continued to lead the gains. This work increased 10% in dollars in two days. Banco Supervielle (+ 4.26%), recovered from the previous day's downgrade.

Thursday's wheel will probably find a rising dollar that will avoid the tread of the band. In addition, the good mood that comes from the United States and predicts that oil will continue to rise may bring another good wheel to the stock market.


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