It is a unique doubt, but it alters all scenarios. Cristina Kirchner will be presented or not for the presidency in 2019? What would happen in both cases? Clarin Access to a new poll that measured the two situations, pulling in the field the main names that sound like candidates. Part of a certainty: the candidate for change will be Mauricio Macri.
The work is by Federico González & Asociados, a consultant who worked for Sergio Massa in previous elections, but who now presents his research in an "independent" way, as he clarified before consulting this newspaper. The last one is a 1,000 cases, collected all over the country December 22 and 23 It is presented with a margin of error of +/- 3.16%.
In both scenarios it represents, with or without Cristina, the candidates are added as if it were a step. Thus, for example, in scenario 1, in addition to the former president, Kirchnerism is offered to Daniel Scioli and Felipe Solá. In 2, Cristina leaves, but Axel Kicillof and Agustín Rossi are added.
The first scenario presented by Federico González places Macri on one side, as the sole official offer, against three candidates K (Cristina, Scioli and Solá), two of federal Peronism (Massa and Juan Manuel Urtubey, under the title "Argentina Alternativa"), one on the left (Nicolás del Caño) and, released, Alfredo Olmedo from Salta, the deputy allied with the macrism that wants to be installed as the "Bolsonaro" autochthonous.
Electoral scenario with Cristina. Sonda by Federico González & Asociados.
Nominally, the president appears as the most voted, with 29.2%, against 27.7% of Cristina. However, when the former president is added the meager 4.2% and 2.7% of Scioli and Solá, the space of Kirchner is in high with 34.6 points. The PJs dialogist ranks third with 20.2%.
More or less a scenario similar to that of 2015, when the FPV and Cambiemos were cut, but Massa (that time with José Manuel de la Sota inside his prisoner) entered the podium with dignity.
In the second scenario, Kirchnerism loses its main figure (Cristina) and replaces it with two good leaders of the kidney (Kicillof and Rossi). The change does not pay: while Macri gets above 29 points, among the four variants of K barely reaches 23.6. Those who win are the federal Peronists, who grow to 25. That is, there would be a transfer of votes from Cristina to Massa and Urtubey.
Electoral scenario without Cristina. Sonda by Federico González & Asociados.
Del Caño and Olmedo also improve slightly, but away from the bigger fight: between the two barely exceeds 10 points. Within the universe K, the only one that would pass the two digits is Kicillof (11.2%); Scioli (6.7%) and Solá (4.2%) take little and Rossi gets lost in the margin of error (1.5%).
Although the scenarios that this consultant researched are PASO and not the first round, for now No candidate seems to have a chance to win without a rematch. No one is close to 45% (which marks the direct victory, then the second is a vote) or 40% with a difference of 10 points or more to avoid voting.
Another conclusion of this research is that a hypothesis is reinforced: Macri does not want Cristina in the first round, but in the polls where the anti K effect would win. According to Federico González, in that hand today the president has a three-point advantage: 40.2% to 37.2%.
Electoral scenarios. Sonda by Federico González & Asociados.
On the other hand, when the former president does not appear, Macri gains more comfort in the first round, but ends up losing the second against Mass: 39.9% to 38.1%.
Anyway, because of the small differences, with undecided between 7.5% and 15.2%, plus the margin of error, both bills appear with the open end.