Sunday , March 7 2021

January was a consolation party for the defeated investors of 2018



The defeat of investments in dollars was extensive. Those who bet on weight won in all areas. In the case of securities in national currency, in fixed terms, placement in securities, the Stock Exchange and investment funds that mix fixed term and securities.

It should be remembered that the dollar that employers take into account to speak about exchange rate delays, is not the dollar that is sold in banks and exchange offices, but the wholesaler that is worth less than and that, in addition, it has a retention of $ 4 when it is exported, which does not reduce the deductions made for different products.. One dollar for an exporter of fruits, juices, meats, or industrial products, per box, is $ 34.37.

This wholesale dollar closed at $ 37.37 after touching $ 36.95. Central purchasing for $ 50 million helped it not to finish at a minimal level. In this way, the wholesale dollar lost 16 cents in the day and 33 cents in the month. The drop in January was 0.87%.

Those who throw weight will continue to do so as long as there are no clouds that threaten to end the summer. In January, they earned 5% in dollars.

The fall in the dollar had a direct impact on the country risk reduction that yielded 2.18% to 674 basis points, encouraged by the feeling that in the United States the Federal Reserve suspended the rate increase for a long time and because when the US bond went up, it lowered its yield to 2.69%. The public title of the United States offers security, but gives little income.

In the United States, investors are covered, though Wall Street, in particular the shares of the S & P 500, are on the rise. In fact, gold had another increase of 0.60% and since August rose 12%.

In Argentina, the country risk fell because Bonar 2024, the benchmark, increased 0.16%, while the dollar closed. But local dollar parities are among the top three in the world. The returns speak for themselves. Bonar 2024 has a rate of return of 10.24% and the Discount that expires in 2033 from 11.15% because their prices are below par. If faith were as great as indicated by the value of the peso against the dollar, why would the column of the to offer operator screens is full of dollar denominated throw (purchase) almost deserted? Who waives having an annual income of more than 11% for 14 years?

This rent makes it more political than economy. He is betting on the re-election of Mauricio Macri or former president Cristina Kirchner. The great gain or loss goes through this dilemma. The other country that lives in a similar situation is Venezuela. There are buyers of bonds that bet on the fall of Maduro that, if it were produced in the short term, this would allow them to triple their investments because they trade at 30% of their value. There are 80% return rates on securities. A week ago, they were 90%, but the small buying wave caused them to increase in price, as with some of the stocks.

Meanwhile, the dollar in banks and exchange offices fell 30 cents, to $ 38.28. The fall of the "blue" was more drastic. He lost 50 cents and closed at $ 37.75.

Central bank reserves rose $ 398 million to $ 66,798 million. Much of the profits are explained by the purchase of 50 million dollars and because overseas by the increase of gold and the reserves of the euro were reevaluated 107 million. In addition, there was a single outflow of foreign currency that was a payment to Brazil of only 2 million.

Rates continued to fall. The Central now announces daily the amount it will offer in the Liquidity Letters to have more control over the monetary base. This time he put $ 145 billion, which allowed him to absorb $ 4 billion, which is double what you have expanded to buy the dollars. Rates have dropped significantly. The maximum, which stood at 55.19%, fell to 54% per year. This is the first time he cuts more than one point in a day. Leliq's average rate fell 1.20 points to 53.69%.

Behind these figures, there are problems of falling employment, consumption, lack of financing, late payment of taxes and credits, but most importantly, is that inflation does not respond as expected to such an adjustment. In this scenario, February may be another favorable month for the dollar. March is the long run.

At least in the stock market, they believe that where the amount of business increased $ 200 million to 830 million with an increase in the S & P Merval, the leaders' index of 0.80%. Who bet on this market, won 20% in dollars in the month. They still need to cover 50% who have lost in strong currency in 2018. To reach that level, they must quadruple their profits in dollars.

On Wall Street, the Argentine ADRs, certificates of shareholding, had excellent performance. Only two companies were deactivated (Banco Francés and Despegar). What surprised was Corporación América with an increase of 14.81%, followed by IRSA Comercial Properties with 6.04%.

In February, the peso's strength trend may continue, but it is difficult to repeat January's gains, particularly in dollar-denominated debt securities. Do not forget that bonds and stocks started from excessively low floors. The Bonar 2024 even yielded almost 14% at the beginning of the year and, due to its price increase, now yields just over 10%, but is quoted at a price that still leaves it off the international market and holds a high risk. January will be remembered as a consolation banquet for the great losers of 2018.


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