When the debate over a possible division began to consolidate, Governor Maria Eugenia Vidal's confirmation that she will not leave only President Mauricio Macri and will unify his election with the national, reopened the discussion: what can happen now that they go together? Is the story of 2015 repeated? How does Cristina affect? Based on these triggers, but above all in the research statistics and historical background, Clarin raises the keys that reestablished non-duplication.
What do the polls say?
So far, the scenarios that combined the names of Macri, Cristina and Vidal have done so with another hypothesis already ruled out: that the governor could replace the president in a national candidacy. In these proposals, in general, in surveys throughout the country, the chief executive of the Buenos Aires agent Appeared above all.
The question now is what will happen only in the province and with the ballot papers glued. Especially in the crucial first round of October, when it is defined who will govern the district in the next four years, in a contest (the venue) that does not provide for a ballot.
In the January surveys that have advanced this newspaper, we have numbers purely from Buenos Aires. It's the Circuits, a small firm, which is usually consulted by the left because it measures that force separately. And it has an important precedent: it got the order and lost the percentages of the results of the provincial legislatures of 2017.
On this occasion, he presented a 1,158 cases, released between 9 and 14 of this month, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
There are some interesting facts: Vidal and Cristina have a similar image in Province (37.5% positive and 46.6% negative first, and 38.1% and 49.2% second), and Macri comes down (31.1% and 59.7%).
When asked about voting intentions, Circuitos asks a question that unites Macri to Vidal (as if they were together at the polls) and then Cristina with another reference K (Agustín Rossi). The Citizen Unit pair is up, but almost, almost within the margin of error: 32.4% to 30.7%.
So, perhaps coming back to the idea that Vidal could go to the presidency, he measured in one with Cristina. Also for Macri, of course. It's there, both Cambiemos leaders are left behind. The governor for much more (48.7% to 42%, compared to 43.8% to 42.7%).
Also, the questions come: when they share a ballot, will Macri play for Vidal? Is she going to push him? Is there a vote cut?
A consultant who works for the Citizen Unit brings two very interesting facts. One, who does not believe that this difference against Macri is manifested in the polls. "The real vote of Cambiemos is that of Vidal. Now people are angry with Macri, but if you hurry up, whoever votes for Vidal will end up voting in Macri, especially if Cristina is on the other side. "
The other data: "In January, Cristina grew 3 or 4 points in the province, but this has to be confirmed in February. January is a month that has a & # 39; prejudice & # 39; for vacations. It may be that voter K has not left and that's why when you call to find out what you found at home and Cambiemos, no. "
Anchor, catapult or cut?
The question was raised in the previous point: How can the relationship of forces between Macri and Vidal work? It can also be added: And Cristina is with its gubernatorial candidate?
The subject has a mediated antecedent, with some actors in common. In the first round of 2015, Macri lost the presidential in the province against Daniel Scioli by 4.21 points (37.13% to 32.92%), while Vidal defeated Aníbal Fernández by 4.31 (39.49% against 35 18% ) to the government. There was a very particular statistical coincidence: Vidal and Scioli both approached 3.4 million votes; and Macri and Hannibal were stationed at 3 million. As if the ticket partners had invested. But many of these 400,000 votes of difference to the Cambiemos candidate, in fact, more than Hannibal came from the side of the Renovador Front, which also suffered a similar cut: Massa for president took 300,000 more votes than Solá to governor. Many opted for the Massa / Vidal variant. In this sense, the primaries usually serve as a computer. Will it be repeated?
Of course neither Vidal nor Macri are equal to 2015 and Cristina comes into play. This also has a precedent to show: when combined with Scioli in the Province in 2007 and 2011, they had similar percentages. There has been very little vote, will the same thing happen now with your candidate for governor? Be careful: despite some current discredit, at these times, Scioli had a better image than the former district president. Now, according to several researchers, Axel Kicillof would better represent the Christian vote and suffer less from leaks. But it is only the candidate who does not want the interpreters of the PJ.
The third in discord and the game of intendants
For the background of 2015, in the case of the governor election, we should also pay attention to the third parties in disagreement. Four years ago, the duo Massa / Solá performed a more than dignified performance in the Province. But for the time being, this third space – Federal Alternative – has a limited national null Buenos Aires. There is not a single candidate who seems to accompany Massa or Juan Manuel Urtubey as gubernatorial candidate.
The only one that sounded like a start, Florencio Randazzo, with a tour and a good image in the district, is in prudent silence. He does not finish digesting the failures of his last two voters: in 2015, Cristina did not even let him run for president and by 2017 he finished fourth as a senator. Perhaps his only consolation was to have collaborated in the defeat of the ex- president against Esteban Bullrich.
There is still a long way to go, but if Federal Alternative does not offer a competitive candidate, the polarization between Vidal and his rival Kirchner can be deepened. This tension can increase ticket cuts.
Moreover, as has already been said, the role of another key group in the Buenos Aires elections: the interpreters. With an attachment this year. By legislative reform, everyone can re-elect, but only once. Will be everything or nothing. And we already know how the leaders of the mobile community can be when they play their own hiding place. A betrayal delivery can be opened to save yourself. Néstor Kirchner himself suffered in 2009. Do the interpreters of Macrist encourage the distribution of their ballots and that of Vidal with that of Cristina, if that suits them? The circus has not opened yet. But entertainment functions are expected. They asked to unfold.