Sunday , June 20 2021

Inflation slowed in November and tends to stabilize in December



Economists and consultants agreed that last month occurred for the first time in several months a slowdown in price hikes, which determined that the rise in the cost of living in November was finally between 2.5 and 2.8 percent.

This was estimated for "Rio Negro" by some consultants, who pointed out as a coincidence that in November there was no increase in rates, besides the subway increases for the Federal Capital, which contributed to a lower price increase, besides the recessive image that lives the domestic economy.

Similarly, the annual inflation will end up between 45 and 47 percent, a very high number, although it should be clarified that, in this case, with the standardization of Indec, the numbers are quite adjusted to the daily reality of citizens.

The official body will disclose the evolution of the consumer price index for November next Thursday.

On this specific point, economist and consultant María Castiglioni anticipated that inflation in November gave 2.5%.

"It was clear that there was a significant slowdown and in this there was a clear influence that the administered prices remained stable. What was seen last month that in the first days there was a sweep of inflation in October, but then in the last two weeks stabilized "said the economist.

We have to consider that inflation in September was no less than 6.5% and that of October's 5.4%, which now practically fell by half in November.

"The drag on the price increase that remains for December is low. That is why we believe that the December inflation level would be similar to November, there may be some seasonal effect at the end of the year, but we do not think this will impact the values ​​up, "said Castiglioni.

In this last point, the consultant said that year-end sales generally generate pressure on the prices of certain items, but clarified that at the end of 2018, with recession and fall in consumption, "this effect will be much more limited." and even the offers are multiplying because traders are looking to reclaim some land for this date. "

"We consider the same as in the year inflation will be around 47% and in early 2019 we see that, although it is not yet known how much the rate will increase, there will be a scenario quite similar to November and December, although the annual rates continue to give very high numbers, "he added. the Economist

It is clear that in this scenario of lower interest rates and with the last Market Research (REM) that the Central Bank did, in which an expectation of lower inflation was found for the next 12 months, were concrete factors for this. decline in the Leliq bond rate below 60%, a figure that remains astronomical.

For consultant Orlando Ferreres in November, there was also a sharp slowdown in the price hike, which caused them to calculate last month's inflation at 2.5% and the whole year to end at 46.5%.

"What could be observed last month was a much lower rate of price increases in different sectors, even in some that were more complicated as food," said Fausto Spotorno, chief economist at Ferreres consultancy.

With this inflationary perspective a little more limited, Spotorno pointed out that, for December, it expects an inflationary climate similar to that which occurred in November, with a certain incidence of certain sectors until the end of the year, but without great consequences in general level.

"December inflation will be below 3%, I think the closest value would be between 2.6 and 2.8%," said consultancy economist Ferreres.

Spotorno also praised the decision taken by the Central Bank in recent weeks to reduce the interest rate, and especially during the fifth and Friday, where Leliq's income fell below 60%.

"I think the Central Bank notes that inflation is easing, that the dollar does not exert much pressure at this time and therefore sees room to continue to reduce the rate, but cautiously," said Spotorno.

Along the same lines, economist and consultant Raul Ochoa estimated that November was a bit more positive for inflation, estimating that it culminated between 2.5 and 2.8 percent and that gradually "should begin to observe lower levels of inflation." "

"Complying with the Central Bank's monetary plan and the pattern of reducing the fiscal deficit without doubting that this contributes to reducing inflation." We should also consider that we are in a recession. the exchange rate as the date of the 2019 elections approaches. I think there will be the nerve center, "added the economist.


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