In 2018, industrial production fell by 5% and construction by 0.8% According to a report prepared by Clarín, expectations for this year 2019 in both sectors are bad.
The industry expects to continue falling in the first quarter, to then start a gradual recovery and close 2019 with a drop of 1.5%. The fall in real wages, which will persist until at least April, and high rates will reduce the industry's chances.
A darker picture for construction: low chances of reactivation in the coming months.
Ecolatina's diagnosis is as follows: "Industry and construction have not yet reached a floor, which we estimate to arrive during the first quarter."
What could help reactivation? The improvement in the exchange rate (industries with greater export potential and import substitution will increase this year). Although this is not a determining factor. On the other hand, construction moves by 25 to 30% due to public works and the remainder by private works. The zero-deficit plan put a long wait for public investment. On the private side, paralysis is partly a consequence of high rates competing against any other investment. Julio Crivelli, president of the Chamber of Constructions, says: "This year the scenario is reproduced before all electoral processes: an increase in public works to support the votes. "If there is reactivation of public work will not be significant," he said.
What will happen to the job?. On the industry side, which lost 60,000 jobs last year, the view is that this year may slow down the employment decline in the sector. "I do not think employment will fall even further, by 2018 the decline has been very pronounced, especially in the last four months," said Pablo Dragún, director of the Center for the Study of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).
From the building, the vision is more somber. Last year, cleanliness in the first half reached formal employment to grow 4%. "We still do not have the data from last month, but of course the work is falling and that will continue for a while," Crivelli admitted.