Friday , October 22 2021

Does the polarization between Macri and Cristina increase the country risk index?



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O country risk rose again to 829 points, which remains at the highest levels in four years, while Argentina's shares suffered heavy losses on Wall Street in the pre-Christmas period. Given this scenario, the economist Ismael Bermúdez He talked to The uncompromising on the impact generated by the alarming JP Morgan indicator in the Argentine economy.

"Increasing country risk means that it increases the cost of Argentina's financing and is therefore virtually inhibited to receive international credit because accepting such credit or paying off debts would be a very large and very damaging rate for the country "Explained the specialist.

"The impact that logically supports the country is very, very strong and what it is indicating is that the international credit is closed," he added in statements to this medium. Asked if the country risk collapses in private investment, Bermudez noted that "it is stopped even before the last increase, which accentuates the divestment, especially all types of investment, including the direct channel without financial investment, which is the huge consequence that this has that Argentina has to pay an interest rate above the US bond rate and that is the direct consequence, "he said.

After several analysts indicated that the escalation of country risk corresponds to a political factor, especially the polarization between Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner, for Bermúdez the number rose to the margin of this crack. "It's not a consequence of the fact that there are these two possible candidates for the elections, it's much earlier than the election issue. We had it on other occasions, we had it in September and we had nothing to do with the election board issue," he said in his point of view.

In Argentina, financial markets did not operate on Monday because it was a day without a working day, but overseas local assets were quoted amid a worrisome day for major foreign markets. .

At the local level, the country risk prepared by JP Morgan again turned on the warning lights, registering an increase of 0.9% and approaching 830 points. Driven by investors' mistrust of Argentina, the indicator was at the highest levels of the last four years. In the index accumulated this year, the index accumulated an increase close to 137% and in the last month of 2018 the increase was around 18%.

On Wall Street, Argentine stocks could not avoid a new negative trend that has dragged the main indicators of this reference market. Local Adr companies dropped almost 10%, as in the case of the Free Market, while those of Supervielle fell by 6.6%; Pampas energy, 5.9%; and Banco Francés, 3.5%.

That trend came amid a highly negative day on the New York Stock Exchange, which closed again in decline after having recorded its worst week since 2008 in a market hit by falling oil prices and hardships in Washington.

According to final closing results, the stock market index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, lost 2.91% to end at 21,792.20 points, its lowest level since September 2017, and the Nasdaq, with a strong technological impression, yielded 2.21%, closing at 6,192.92 points. The S & P 500 extended index fell 2.71% and finished at 2,351.10 points, its lowest level since April 2017.

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