After the last rise, the dollar starts low – 11/26/2018



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After the strong rise of more than one peso that closed on Friday, the dollar started the stable week descending 7 cents, to $ 38.43, according to the Central Bank average. In the nation was sold at $ 38.25, about 20 cents less than the last close.

The wholesaler, on the other hand, having started low, now got a jump of 55 cents, to US $ 38.05. This market is where banks, large companies and the Central Bank operate, and whose contribution ends up affecting the retail channel, where savers buy.

The jump of more than one peso, or nearly 3%, which showed the dollar at the wheel on Friday, ignited some warnings among traders and analysts. This day, the currency rose $ 1.07 and finished at $ 38.51.

Has the exchange rate ended? Did interest rates fall too fast? Do those who bet on the "carry trade" make a profit? Does the pre-electoral climate begin to play into the definition of investments? All of these questions were circulated on will certainly be reinstalled on Monday, when operations are resumed.

In addition, this Monday you'll get a full Wall Street reference, this Thursday did not work and on Friday he did it in the middle of Thanksgiving celebrations.

On Friday the weight dropped but in general all emerging currencies were depreciated against the dollar. On Monday, with markets functioning normally, there may be a greater supply of foreign currency to meet demand and the price on the local market will not be as high.

With the recovery of the dollar, which continued throughout the week, the wholesale exchange rate was almost 4% above the floor of the exchange band, who came to rub against November 15.

Operators are certainly uncomfortable because some variables are reluctant to follow the decline of the exchange rate and the rates since the start of the monetary program in October.

It should be noted that debt securities they did not keep up with this change in mood, and therefore the rates of return on these papers – summarized in country risk – are reluctant to fall, which is still troubling news.

Both the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank trust that when the first private data (or advances) are known November Inflation Humor will tend to change. There are those who are already projecting numbers that could give below 3% for the month that is about to end and closer to 2% in December.

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